Ladbrokes have put a market on which quarter of 2026 Sir Keir Starmer will be replaced as Labour leader. If Starmer goes in 2026 (and there’s no certainty of that) I would expect him to go/be ousted in the aftermath of the devolved and location elections which take place in May which would be the trigger point and given how long the Labour leadership election would take I think the value might be in the latter two quarters of 2026…
TSE
It’s a truism of pop history that wealthy “civilised” states are always at a disadvantage, when fighting against poorer but tougher adversaries, whether those enemies are steppe horsemen, desert tribes, guerillas, or religious fanatics. In more modern times, the weakness of democratic nations (attempting as they do, to adhere to the Law of Armed Conflict, and being wary of heavy casualties), is contrasted the strength of dictatorships (who don’t need to worry about such things). There is a belief that…
The farce that Your Party seem to deliver on a regular basis is good news for The Green Party of England & Wales and their leader Zack Polanski. TSE
This polling by the British Polling Council registered pollster Stack Data Strategy is consistent with other public polling which, if there were an election tomorrow, the Tories would be eradicated from the face of the earth like Carthage during The Third Punic War. The problem for Kemi Badenoch is that private polling makes Tory MPs more antsy, The Telegraph notes The findings are being circulated within the Conservative Research Department inside Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ), The Telegraph understands, and have…
TSE
I find polling like this fascinating and allows explains why voters don’t always make rational decisions. TSE
One of the reasons I have backed Ron DeSantis is that if the Trump presidency turns into a bit of a disaster (well more of a disaster than it currently is) then that damages the likes of J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio. Being a relative ‘clean skin’ would be an advantage for the Governor of Florida. TSE