Very rarely do you see pollsters criticise other pollsters, there’s almost an omerta on this subject, so I find it interesting that Luke Tryl of MoreInCommon, James Johnson of JL Partners, and Martin Boon formerly of ICM and DeltaPoll have criticised this Find Out Now poll. A poll like this not only risks the credibilty of Find Out Now but of the wider polling industry, even if it turns out to be right it will be down to sheer happenstance…
There has been plenty of movement on Betfair following this poll but The Telegraph report that is based on a sample of just 143 which I think is ludicrously low. The margin of error on this poll is 8% if the sample size correctly recorded. TSE
Getting endorsed by the former Lib Dem Liz Truss is an endorsement politicians would go out of their way to avoid. A fun betting market is if/when Liz Truss will defect to Reform. This month she had lunch with Nigel Farage and just before Christmas she predicted Farage would be the next PM, a defection feels inevitable, after all more members of the cabinet under Liz Truss are now members of Reform than sit in Kemi Badenoch’s cabinet. TSE
One of the main reasons for David Cameron’s detoxification project was some polling in 2005 which showed a policy became less popular when the public found out it was a Tory policy and I’ve also placed much faith in this type of polling. Given the quasi-presidential nature of our general election we have in this country this polling shows that Nigel Farage can be damaging to a policy more than Sir Keir Starmer. This fits my expectation that there could…
A quick reminder about the 2026 PB Predictions Competition. To enter you simply need to post your answers to the following 12 questions onto the site before the end of January with the hashtag #competition somewhere in the post to help the scorer (me) find your entry. Or, you can private message me @Benpointer with your entry answers. Questions are weighted equally with 20 points for a correct or a closest answer and 10 points for a near miss,…
In the absence of recent polling on the outcome of a contest as to who will replace Starmer, this Survation polling from September is probably the best decent ball park guide. The sample is of Labour List readers who said they are Labour members (link here) Of interest now is not the top line polling including Burnham, but the polling of who might be preferred when the contest is limited to a choice between sitting MPs only. 1st preferences only:…
I never thought I would have a smidgen of sympathy for Suella Braverman, especially after she defected, but those close to Kemi Badenoch have managed it, given how well she handled the defection of Robert Jenrick this has undone all that good work. The excuse that it was a draft version won’t work, this isn’t student politics, it should never have been anywhere near a draft. TSE
Picture: Angela Rayner, left. Whilst the blocking of Andy Burnham has the reek of desperation it was a political penectomy on Andy Burnham, so if as expected the results are very bad for Labour in May’s local and devolved elections when Labour MPs will look to oust Starmer then Andy Burnham will not be able to succeed him now who will benefit? I think the main beneficiaries are going to be Wes Streeting, Shabana Mahmood, and Angela Rayner. I think…