politicalbetting.com

Dear Herr Merz, President Trump is about to impose swingeing tariffs with the goal of reducing the US’s bilateral trade deficit with Germany and the EU. And I know, the temptation is to respond in kind, and demonstrate that you have agency. Don’t. It is stupid and counter-productive, and the impact on European and German voters would be severe. Instead, I would like to suggest an alternative approach: do absolutely nothing. Why? Well, three reasons. Firstly, the impact on US demand for European…

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Your regular reminder that betting markets can be as inaccurate as an American war movie and also of the power of Trump. TSE

With just 5 MPs elected in 2024, it’s impossible for Reform to win the next election. So we are told. We can list multiple events which were politically impossible which then happened anyway. In today’s politics, the impossible is the future possible. Reform UK have transformed themselves – from UKIP to the Brexit Party to Reform UK Ltd, and now to a non-profit owned by its growing number of members. It is led by a Teflon-coated populist who so many…

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We all remember OGH’s 50/1 bet on Obama. Well, I’ve got another for you! 50/1 on Mark Carney to be next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. Oh… sorry, no, the bookies are offering 1/50 on Carney. Bet £50 and win £1 if he is elected. Is he really such a foregone conclusion? I’ve not seen any polling of party members, but the last two polls of Liberal voters had him 54pp and 40pp up against Chrystia Freeland, his…

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Since Donald Trump’s second inauguration things aren’t looking well for Ukraine and Brits realise the outcome of the war is key to our national interest which presents problems for Nigel Farage and Reform. Nigel Farage looks set to play the role of Orville the Duck to Donald Trump’s Keith Harris which I think will go down very badly with the public and coupled with yesterday’s news that ‘The former leader of Reform UK in Wales accepted bribes in exchange for…

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With Mike Amesbury being sentenced today (and him appealing) the recall process will be slightly paused, I suspect we will see a by election at some point this year. Ladbrokes have a market on a potential by election. I still think Labour has a chance of holding the seat but I understand why people will want to back Reform. TSE

TSE

I am intrigued to see if the interventions by the new American administration starts impacting election outcomes in other countries, such as Germany and Canada, we won’t have long to wait to see with the former. TSE