Ipsos MRP has the Tories on 115 seats

Ipsos MRP has the Tories on 115 seats

It says a lot about the pickle the Tories find themselves in that a MRP showing the Tories on 115 seats feels like good news for them. Beyond Topline makes the astute observation above on why this MRP is better for the Tories than some other MRPs. I spoke to a political analyst a couple of days ago who said MRPs will always throw out a few constituency results which seem logic defying (Canterbury going Labour in 2017 anyone?) but…

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Why do some right wing Tory MPs want to overturn a democratic vote?

Why do some right wing Tory MPs want to overturn a democratic vote?

As a lifelong Tory it dawned on me recently that whilst July 4th would be a very bad day for the Tory party it has the potential to get much worse for the party afterwards and the story in the Mail on Sunday seems to confirm that. It is often said that Sir Keir Starmer is a lucky general and if the Tories and Reform remain fractured and trying to outdo each other on an extreme right wing agenda then…

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When assumptions go wrong

When assumptions go wrong

As Tom Calver observes the assumptions for months, if not years, was that undecided voters would break for the Tories but that hasn’t happened so far. Based on an overall sample size of 42,269 the margin of error on this ‘subsample’ of 2,843 undecided voter is quite low, it’s not like a Scottish subsample of 42 people in Inverkeithing. The only kernel of good news for the Tories is that there is 43% of the undecideds are still undecided so…

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A point of agreement

A point of agreement

If you want to understand (and you really should want to) how gender ideology – the belief that men can turn into women simply by saying so based on some internal feeling they have – captured so many public institutions and members of the political class in recent years, how, in particular, it led to the Gender Recognition Reform Act in Scotland (blocked by the UK government), how Scottish women mobilised and fought back against it and the price they…

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The War at Home: Labour Defences (Part Two)

The War at Home: Labour Defences (Part Two)

There are eight seats which Labour won in 2019 adjusted for the new boundaries, but where you can get real odds (1/10 or longer) on them winning this time. The first four were covered earlier. The final four are below. All majorities below are the notional 2019 result on the new boundaries Islington North. Majority: 26,188. Odds: 13/8 (Ladbrokes) The Independent who needs no introduction, Jeremy Corbyn is taking on his own party having been pretty openly forced out by…

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The War at Home: Labour Defences (Part One)

The War at Home: Labour Defences (Part One)

In 1997 Labour won a landslide with 146 gains and no losses. It stands to reason really: Their vote share rose by 8.8% nationally and with the bulk of voters deciding on national issues or loyalties that rising tide lifted all boats. Labour are currently polling roughly 10% above the 32.1% vote share Corbyn achieved in 2019, and yet the betting markets have them as outsides in two seats they hold. A further six seats have meaningful odds (1/10 or…

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Into the Great Wide Yonder

Into the Great Wide Yonder

So for a bit of fun, I decided to look at the Survation MRP polling conducted between 31st May and 13th June. This showed that all but 72 Tory MPs would lose their seats and I wondered what the make up of the Tory party would look like after the election if this prediction came true. Below are listed the 72 MPs who Survation suggest will survive the Great Cull of 2024. They are listed from largest lead to smallest…

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A nice tip to start your Sunday

A nice tip to start your Sunday

Based on the Survation MRP published last night Labour are in third place in Clacton just 3.1% behind Reform’s Nigel Farage, it can only take a little bit of movement and/or the MRP to be slightly out for Labour to come through the middle and win. Both Ladbrokes and Bet 365 have Labour 8/1 to win whilst Betfair have Labour at 13 and I reckon that’s worth a flutter although I expect this will be a bet that joins my…

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