Next week things can only get better for Sunak or worse

Next week things can only get better for Sunak or worse

Next week represents one of the few potential game changers in the election campaign, the first debate between Starmer and Sunak, on ITV1 next Tuesday, this head to head, moderated by Juliet Etchingham, will be to the detriment for the parties that are not part of the big two in Great Britain. Sunak goes in with low expectations so has the potential to surprise on the upside. Lawyer Starmer often wins PMQs and makes Sunak look petulant and not in…

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Your morning must read

Your morning must read

Adam Drummond of Opinium has done an explainer on their methodology, it is useful for those who think the forecaster pollsters will be right and those unsure about the methodology. TSE

The Purge: Election Year

The Purge: Election Year

It has been an exciting day for political aficionados with the apparent purge of some left leaning Labour MPs with the most high profile being Diane Abbott. This YouGov poll shows the public do support Starmer’s decision although Labour voter’s disagree. I have never been a Diane Abbott fan. If there’s one thing that will really annoy me is hypocrisy on education and she’s got a lot of hypocrisy there as this link shows. She’s also made quite a few…

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One week on and betting markets remain utterly convinced about Starmer winning a majority

One week on and betting markets remain utterly convinced about Starmer winning a majority

Graphic – Betfair over the last week on the overall majority market A week ago Rishi Sunak announced the election on the 4th of July and as we can see the first week of the campaign has hardly changed the expectation of gamblers. Starmer’s safety first approach is working so far. TSE

The Swinney slump doesn’t look like stopping

The Swinney slump doesn’t look like stopping

Ever since John Swinney replaced Humza Yousaf as First Minister every subsequent poll has shown the SNP going backwards and this Survation is no different, whilst there is a risk of the fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc that there appears to be no better leader than John Swinney available for the SNP. What really should worry the SNP is that Sir Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar have better leader ratings than John Swinney which usually is an indicator…

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Bookmark this post and these tweets

Bookmark this post and these tweets

Many thanks to Patrick Flynn of FocalData for compiling this analysis which explains why we have such variance in the polls and fits in with this morning’s thread. To quote Patrick, ‘These is your cheat sheet for identifying which pollster belongs in which group. Yellows and greens tend to show reduced Labour leads.’ It is worth reviewing polls when they come out to this cheat sheet. TSE Hat-tip to eek for posting this tweet on the previous thread

Polling errors

Polling errors

Back in 2012 when Mike Smithson first asked me to edit PB one thing he told me pay close attention to was the thoughts of his friend Lord Hayward, the man who has an excellent record in spotting polling failures, going back to the shy Tories of 1992. Today’s Guardian has the following report Some of the polls before the general election may be overstating Labour’s huge lead over the Conservatives, a Tory election expert has said. According to Robert Hayward,…

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