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Picture: Wikimedia Commons Rosie Duffield’s resignation from Labour raises the prospect of an independent, ex-Labour left-wing grouping in Parliament and perhaps even in elections. Rosie (pictured) joins Jeremy Corbyn, who of course was re-elected in the general election as an independent. And seven former Labour MPs lost the whip after voting against the two-child cap in universal credit, so there are currently nine ex-Labour MPs in the Commons. To regain the whip, the seven MPs would need to vote loyally…

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I am a bit surprised by these findings, those people expecting a terrible backlash for Starmer over the Chagos Islands will be shocked as I think more Brits value the Falkands than the Chagos Islands. TSE

I was planning on doing a thread on whether we’d see a crossover on Betfair between James Cleverly and Bobby J Robert Jenrick however that’s not going to happen because in James Cleverly’s role in the Chagos Islands deal, another disastrous legacy of the brief tenure of Liz Truss. Looking at how Betfair has reacted from Cleverly’s Kemi-kaze Badenoch style approach we are going to see a crossover again between Cleverly and Badenoch. I think there may now be a…

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Picture: Merchandise sold by Robert Jenrick and his campaign TSE

This is a very usual thread about why you should never read too much in to unweighted subsamples, this is a universality that applies to polls across the world, from Kentucky to Kirkintilloch and everywhere else inbetween. TSE

After the final four made their speeches today Kemi Badenoch continues her collapse in the betting market whilst James Cleverly has surged. Next week Tory MPs will decide who the final two are and I wonder if the value is with Tom Tugendhat because if Jenrick has votes to spare he will want to face Tom Tugendhat rather than James Cleverly and will urge his supporters to vote tactically. Tugendhat is currently 28s on Betfair and 33/1 at Ladbrokes. TSE

I haven’t watched the Veep debate in full but of the clips I have seen neither man had a gaffe and I’d probably make the result a draw but I’d give the win to Vance because he came in with very low expectations. TSE

Like Hezbollah it’s not been a great few days for Kemi Badenoch, she keeps on saying things that make her look in a very bad light. Punters have moved away from in this leadership contest today and moved to James Cleverly which is great news for everybody who followed my advice to lay her and/or back Cleverly at 7/1. She has tomorrow to turn things around otherwise her Kemi-kaze approach brings a divine wind to James Cleverly’s chances of winning…

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