This is not sustainable for the Tories

This is not sustainable for the Tories

That chart above is quite stark, the Tory Party is now the Party of Pensioners. The Tories at their best is about aspiration and helping workers move up the ladder but now it is about featherbedding (home owning) pensioners. Why I do not think it is sustainable long term for the Tories is that you cannot continually tax workers until the pips squeak to pay for a largely economically inactive pensioner client vote, particularly when in large swathes of the…

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You get what you vote for

You get what you vote for

I grew up in Rochdale. The town is classic ex-cotton Lancashire. Deindustrialised with little other than shopping and warehousing left – and the shops are largely gone. The town itself isn’t that big. Much of “Rochdale” is the communities that surround it – Littleborough, Milnrow, Whitworth, Heywood. The council dubbed these “townships”. In the 1980s. Yeah… Just as I grew up in the “township” of Wardle, communities of people originally from India, Pakistan, Kashmir and Bangladesh clustered into their own…

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Sir Keir Starmer suffers from electoral dysfunction, again

Sir Keir Starmer suffers from electoral dysfunction, again

Note: This article rightly chooses to ignore the Bristol South East by-election of 1961 due to the unique if not farcical situation of that by-election Bad Leaders of the Opposition in the last 63 years such as Michael Foot and Jeremy Corbyn lost seats they held in by-elections to the governing party. Sir Keir Starmer joined that infamous list in 2021 but there was a lot of mitigation in that, that by-election took place in the midst of the vaccine…

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George Galloway is no longer the favourite to win Rochdale

George Galloway is no longer the favourite to win Rochdale

This morning Galloway was the favourite this morning to win the by election but as we can see now Azhar Ali, the official but disowned Labour candidate, has become the favourite but the betting markets can often be wrong. I remember the 2006 Dunfermline and West Fife by-election where when the candidates walked on to the stage Labour were the overwhelming favourites at close to 1.01 on Betfair and yet when the results were announced the Lib Dems won by…

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Will George Galloway be purring tonight?

Will George Galloway be purring tonight?

If the betting is correct then overnight George Galloway will become an MP again, this time for a fifth different constituency. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a result similar to the 1992 Inverness, Nairn, and Lochaber result where the winning candidate won with 26\% of the vote and a mere 3.4% covered the top four candidates. If he does become an MP again then it will be fantastic to have an MP with such a great gasp of foreign…

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Betting on Lee Anderson to defect

Betting on Lee Anderson to defect

This market on Lee Anderson to defect to Reform on the face of it doesn’t present much value either side of the bet. If I was forced to choose I would back No with pennies. As we can see above speculation is running rampant after his shameful comments about Sadiq Khan which denounced by so many people, including Jewish people who pointed out you wouldn’t say that a Jewish mayor was controlled by Jews or Zionists. What may make this…

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London is becoming a no go area for the Tories

London is becoming a no go area for the Tories

Just over a fortnight ago I tipped a 50% in fewer than three months when I said Sadiq Khan would achieve the largest first round victory in London mayoral history, sadly Ladbrokes have pulled that market. It feels inevitable that Sadiq Khan will win in May, PBers will have to exercise their own judgment on whether they wish to take the 1.06 available on Khan winning on Betfair. I expect the Green and Lib Dem votes will be squeezed as…

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