When setting the PB 2025 prediction competition one of the questions we thought would be interesting was the number of MPs with the Reform whip on the 31st of December 2025 because Nigel Farage has a long history of falling out with those he works with. So far Nigel Farage has lost 40% of the MPs elected at the last general election* and I think as we approach the next election is can Nigel Farage herd 326+ MPs as government…
I am not sure there’s any value in backing either side of this bet (due to the payout timeframe) but it shows the pickle Kemi Badenoch’s Tory party finds itself in that the Lib Dems are just 6/5 to win more seats at the next general election than the Tories. TSE
A golden rule of betting is that you shouldn’t get involved in markets where the bookies do not offer both sides of the bet and I think these markets from Ladbrokes fit that criteria. Whilst his reaction to the Salisbury poisonings permanently damaged Jeremy Corbyn and he is a much diminished figure since 2017 (which his supporters forget he still lost that election to the Tories who ran the worst campaign in living memory.) The new party that was announced…
On Saturday when the story about James McMurdock broke punters took a dim view about the scandal but Reform have retaken their place as favourites for the most seats. Given his conviction for assaulting his girlfriend I don’t think Nigel Farage will be too upset by this scandal although it is another failure for Reform’s vetting process. TSE
Despite only being Prime Minister for forty-nine days Liz Truss managed to cement her name into the lexicon of UK politics, such as Trussing the markets when her mini budget spooked the markets because she proposing a massive increase in government spending and cuts to taxes which given the state of the public finances was not what the markets wanted to hear. If the Tory party is about to go the way of the Liberal party in the last century…
An assumption of many punters, myself included, have is that the second Trump presidency will be very bad for those voters who voted for it and they would reject Trump and the GOP in the midterms and in 2028 but that that assumption might be faulty as seen with the Trump voter in the tweet. Support for Trump really is cult like and plenty of his supporters truly are deranged. TSE
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Perhaps Corbyn has finally realised that for most of his life he ends up helping right wing parties. TSE