The Battle of Tewkesbury

The Battle of Tewkesbury

On the 4th May 1471 the Yorkist forces of Edward IV defeated the Lancastrian Army of Edward, Prince of Westminster in one of the most decisive battles of the Wars Of The Roses.   Although slightly outnumbered, the success of the White Rose gang was no great surprise and it is likely winning punters got little better than evens on their wagers.   Shrewd punters on the forthcoming election battle of Tewkesbury on July 4th 2024 may however do slightly better, and…

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There’s certainly no herding on today’s MRPs

There’s certainly no herding on today’s MRPs

Each of the pollsters have different fieldworks and methodologies which explains the variations (and don’t dismiss a poll because the fieldwork is older, I mean do you want it quick or do you want it good?) This makes betting on politics so much fun, get it right on the spreads and you’re quids in and get it wrong and you’re going to the poorhouse. The Tories are getting walloped but even the best MRP has them losing worse than 1997…

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By 32% to 26% Brits think Ed Davey would be a better PM than Rishi Sunak

By 32% to 26% Brits think Ed Davey would be a better PM than Rishi Sunak

I am not a fan of the best PM metric because the incumbent PM usually ends up having an incumbency bias but this polling is quite notable that the Sunak is doing worse than Ed Davey. Clearly Davey’s stunts aren’t damaging but a vote a winner against Sunak. It may well be a harbinger that the Lib Dems do better in the Con v LD battlegrounds than the polls suggest. On current prices I don’t think the Lib Dems are…

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Some very sage advice on reacting to the MRPs

Some very sage advice on reacting to the MRPs

Alex Bogdan worked on the Ipsos MRP and I advise you all to pay heed to her comment in the fourth tweet especially if you bet on this election Full data here with maps and all. Of course you’re all sensible people and wouldn’t put too much weight on individual seat estimates because you know modelling can’t take into account all the complexities of local campaigns. I trust you all. TSE

Ipsos MRP has the Tories on 115 seats

Ipsos MRP has the Tories on 115 seats

It says a lot about the pickle the Tories find themselves in that a MRP showing the Tories on 115 seats feels like good news for them. Beyond Topline makes the astute observation above on why this MRP is better for the Tories than some other MRPs. I spoke to a political analyst a couple of days ago who said MRPs will always throw out a few constituency results which seem logic defying (Canterbury going Labour in 2017 anyone?) but…

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Why do some right wing Tory MPs want to overturn a democratic vote?

Why do some right wing Tory MPs want to overturn a democratic vote?

As a lifelong Tory it dawned on me recently that whilst July 4th would be a very bad day for the Tory party it has the potential to get much worse for the party afterwards and the story in the Mail on Sunday seems to confirm that. It is often said that Sir Keir Starmer is a lucky general and if the Tories and Reform remain fractured and trying to outdo each other on an extreme right wing agenda then…

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When assumptions go wrong

When assumptions go wrong

As Tom Calver observes the assumptions for months, if not years, was that undecided voters would break for the Tories but that hasn’t happened so far. Based on an overall sample size of 42,269 the margin of error on this ‘subsample’ of 2,843 undecided voter is quite low, it’s not like a Scottish subsample of 42 people in Inverkeithing. The only kernel of good news for the Tories is that there is 43% of the undecideds are still undecided so…

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