Sporting Index have opened their spreads on the White House race. I am a huge fan of spread betting but I realise this isn’t for everybody as you can lose substantially more than your stake but spread betting is political betting loins are girded. I’ve said for a while is that if Trump wins it will be a narrow win in the electoral college but if Harris wins it will be big victory in the electoral college so I would…
Had Rishi Sunak waited for a November election then PB and the media would have been focussing on the fact that it would have been fifty years since a Labour leader other than Tony Blair won an election. Another fun fact about the 1974 October election is that it is the last time Labour increased the number of seats it won whilst in government, something the Tories have achieved three times in the same time frame. I was born after…
I am currently under the weather so have not had the time to look at these markets properly but my initial view is that the time value of money makes the first market unattractive. As for the second market, they payout could be potentially nearly two decades away after Prime Minister Badenoch or Prime Minister Jenrick decide to stand down after their second or third term as Prime Minister. Under the current Tory leadership rules which date back to 2001…
TSE
The final two are announced at 3.30pm and punters say it won’t be Jenrick. TSE
The voters aren’t enamoured with either major party at the moment. With potentially 57 months until the election only an idiot would predict the outcome of the next general election now, only the heir to the throne of the kingdom of idiots would confidently predict the outcome of the next general election now. TSE
Laying the favourite is usually a good strategy (which is a strategy I used with Kemi Badenoch shortly after the general election) thankfully I backed her last week when her price cratered and also backed Cleverly at 7s last month. Robert Jenrick to not make the final two is a strong possibility, almost feels inevitable now. TSE
You could change ‘state’ to ‘stasis’ in the title, and you wouldn’t be far wrong: hardly any movement since last week, which is exactly how I started off last week’s comments. So, what movement has there been? In national polling, Harris has a slight edge, but there’s been a small shift towards Trump. Harris is clearly favourite to win the popular vote, but that of course isn’t what counts.In the Electoral College, 538 has moved North Carolina from Trump to…