politicalbetting.com

There is no polling and political expert I respect more than Professor Sir John Curtice, as a wise man once observed nobody became rich by betting against Sir John. I am happy that he shares my view that the u-turn on holding the postponed local elections represents a much bigger risk for the Tories than Labour and that means more problems for Kemi Badenoch which could see a leadership challenge. There’s also a clip of Professor Curtice talking about this….

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TSE Site notice – I am currently on holiday until the 1st of March

Reform’s legal challenge has forced the government to u-turn and ensure the previously delayed council elections do take place in May. Not only is the u-turn bad for Starmer but the inevitable shellacking Labour experiences in May will put Starmer’s leadership at risk but it also presents problems for Kemi Badenoch as I expected May’s elections will be rather grim for the Tories. In 2022 their national equivalent share of the vote was 30% and currently in 2026 they generally…

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Right now Labour are an implied 34% chance of winning most seats at the next general election versus Reform who are a 33.8% chance. As we can see in th second chart this is the first time Labour have been the favourites in this market since June 2025. TSE Site notice – I am currently on holiday until the 1st of March

Unless punters think Sir Keir Starmer’s remaining leader is a major positive for Labour I am not sure why the most seats markets have moved quite so much. The movement started before the launch of Rupert Lowe’s new party, so this poll with a methodology that isn’t standard and is the past has been shown to be flawed shouldn’t move the market, after their Gorton & Denton ‘poll’ then I am surprised they would publish a non standard poll so…

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TSE

For mostly the same reasons I thought Andy Burnham wouldn’t succeed Sir Keir Starmer, he’s not an MP as Andy Burnham will attest that’s insurmountable in the current political timetable. Although if Starmer blocks Sir Sadiq Khan then wrath of Khan and his supporters might be fiercer than Burnham’s given Khan’s approval rating with Labour members. As for backing Khan to win the 2028 London mayoral election, I am not keen on tying my money up for that long in…

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I love polling like this because it is a good proxy for tactical voting. For Reform and Farage supporters I wouldn’t get too despondent, I was a Tory in London in the early 2000s so I know what it feels like when your politics is seen as unappealing, just keep your Trump and Farage support quiet. TSE Site notice – I am currently on holiday until the 1st of March