A closer look at the local elections

A closer look at the local elections

The second of my threads on the forthcoming local elections looks at two southern coastal councils which should be the epitome of rock-solid Conservative territory but this year will be representative of that party‚Äôs current electoral strength or frailty. These are among eight District Councils which normally elect by thirds but which, due to boundary changes, are having all-up elections this year. Fareham sits between Southampton and Portsmouth. The local council (which also includes part of the Gosport constituency) has…

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Yea, though I walk through the Tees Valley of the shadow of Reform

Yea, though I walk through the Tees Valley of the shadow of Reform

Redfield & WIlton have published a plethora of polling on the Tees Valley Mayoral polling and I feel a little bit shocked by this polling as my expectation was that the scandal around Lord Houchen would doom him but I share Lewis Baston’s take on the polling. One thing to look after the election is where the Reform do not stand where do their voters go? As Redfield & Wilton rightly point out it is rather silly to base assumptions…

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Raynergate isn’t cutting through

Raynergate isn’t cutting through

The public really aren’t paying attention to the Rayner because it is very thin gruel. If the Tories want to damage Labour they will need another story because this one isn’t doing much. TSE

Starmer is expected to be better than Johnson et al

Starmer is expected to be better than Johnson et al

To be fair you’d expect a lettuce to be a better PM than Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak but there is other polling which shows Sir Keir Starmer doesn’t scare voters in the way two time election loser Jeremy Corbyn did, it does indicate to me at least plenty of Tory voters will sit at home on election day. TSE

Street’s ahead

Street’s ahead

On Wednesday I wrote an article saying there was value in backing Andy Street at 4.0 in May’s election based on his personal approval ratings and yesterday there was a poll confirming my hunch was right. You can still get 3.25 on Street winning which I think represents value. TSE

This could be suboptimal for the SNP in an election year

This could be suboptimal for the SNP in an election year

Innocent until proven guilty should always apply but as Lord McAlpine noted about the untrue allegations about himself said he feared he would never fully restore his reputation and that the public would rather believe the “insidious and awful” proverb, “there’s no smoke without fire”. If Humza Yousaf really is unlucky then the trial will take place during the general election campaign. TSE

1931 in reverse grows closer

1931 in reverse grows closer

The UK’s longest standing pollster has published their latest output and it is utterly grim reading for the Tories and Sunak. The lowest Tory share of in 45 years with Ipsos isn’t the most shocking finding. Sunak hitting 10% approval is dire given we have a de facto presidential system, particularly since the televised debates became a part of the election campaign in 2010. Sunak legacy is heading for him to be predominantly being the Tory leader who led them…

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Understanding Scottish voters

Understanding Scottish voters

I remain of the view that the SNP will not do as bad as expected at the general election and this analysis does show some evidence for that. If SNP get back their don’t knows then it is possible. Whatever issues the SNP may have circa 45% of Scots back Scottish independence and the SNP remains the best vehicle to deliver that so if they can focus on that 45% then under FPTP then SNP should do better than three…

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