These tweet shows how poorly Trump is doing in the polls, if these sort of numbers persist then assuming free and fair elections are held in 2028 then the current favourite on Betfair to win 2028 J.D. Vance will be damaged by these numbers by association. If you fancy tying up your money for nearly four years then laying Vance then this might be the strategy for you. TSE
Ladbrokes have a market up on will Reform have 10 or more MPs at the time the next election is called, the time value of money alone makes this a poor bet (and the fact the other side of the bet isn’t offered). With the Rupert Lowe legal action against Nigel Farage, Lee Anderson, and others, I wouldn’t be betting on the number of Reform MPs there will be at any point in this parliament, which has potentially over four…
TSE
Canada might turn out to be an example of Donald Trump damaging the chances of right wing parties across the world. Something Nigel Farage and to a lesser extent Kemi Badenoch may have to worry about. Although Sir Keir may also have that issue but he does have a get out of jail card that he is Prime Minister and has to live in the real world. I suspect if Ukraine is sold out by the appeaser and the beardy…
In September 2019 just after the Supreme Court’s decision on whether the then government’s decision to prorogue Parliament was lawful (it wasn’t), a prolific commentator on legal affairs, a KC no less, wrote this: “As a legal matter, if the Supreme Court says it is the law it is the law. Saying “this is the law” is what it is the Supreme Court’s job to do.” Well done. He went on: “Johnson and Cummings and the other moral detritus they…
With the death of Pope Francis at 88 after a 12-year pontificate, this header will look at the candidates to succeed him. In Italian, the candidates are known as Papabili (literally Pope-ables). The rules Surprisingly, only 2 official rules govern Papal elections: These 2 rules mean that the potential pool of candidates is almost half a billion and includes the likes of Joe Biden, Cristiano Ronaldo and Arnold Schwarzenegger. Fortunately, there are also several unofficial rules: The election process is…
If you have any money resting in your account you might be contemplating betting on who will be the next Pope and bookies like Paddy Power are offering odds but I would caution against betting on these markets as this is the epitome of an insiders’ market. No matter how many times you have watched the film Conclave doesn’t make you an expert on papal elections. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the candidate most aligned with the late Pope…
As Reform continue to surge in the polls Scotland isn’t immune to the charms of a Farage led party this time but I wonder if his latest announcement will cause Reform to stall and indeed go backwards in North Britain. Reform going for the votes of disaffected Scottish nationalists is fraught with risks as it risk alienating Unionists who were considering voting Reform but would never countenance supporting the SNP or Scottish independence. Nigel Farage whose lifelong political strategy has…