Carthago Delenda Est

Carthago Delenda Est

A General Election is supposed to answer the question of who runs the country, but we already have the answer for July 4th 2024: it will be Labour running the country. From their side, the only outstanding answer required is whether they have a big majority, or a very big majority. Or even a VERY very big majority.From the other side, there are other and more interesting questions: what kind of a result will the Conservatives get? And what will…

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Understanding the exit poll

Understanding the exit poll

In the run up to every recent general election there’s speculation that the exit poll will be wrong this time because of some new change. In 2010 it was the Lib Dem surge, in 2015 it was the rise of UKIP and the SNP, in 2017 and 2019 there were Brexit related issues but the exit poll team dealt with those and gave us very accurate exit polls. In the run up to this election there’s new issues being flagged,…

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Keir was the toolmaker’s son

Keir was the toolmaker’s son

Matt Singh is right, not everybody thinks/follows politics in the way we do which might impact our betting strategies. As more people realise Starmer is a lawyer then his ratings should rise further. Millions of voters are saying ‘The only one who could ever reach me was the son of a toolmaker man.’ TSE

Profiles in leadership

Profiles in leadership

Longstanding readers of Political Betting know how much faith Mike Smithson and I put in the Ipsos MORI leader satisfaction ratings. Thanks to Rob Ford for digging into the numbers one month before the election which shows Rishi Sunak and the current Tories are record breakers for all the wrong reasons. From these figures we can infer that the Tories are on course for the mother of all shellackings on the 4th of July. There’s seems very little left for…

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Kaboom! Is Sunak the Tory David Lloyd George?

Kaboom! Is Sunak the Tory David Lloyd George?

This feels like a genuine tipping point for the Tory party. Like David Lloyd George, Sunak could be his party’s last ever PM? This is the sort of polling that will cause panic and discipline to fall apart within the Tory party. That said Labour on 37% might start setting off some concerns at Labour HQ especially as Con + Reform equals 37%. TSE

Lib Dems! Winning here?

Lib Dems! Winning here?

One thing that has been noticed with recent polls is that there is shift away from Labour but what does that mean? If this polling shift was bad for Labour then it would mean Starmer’s ratings should start falling as well but they are improving (as well as Sunak’s falling). One of the best polling analysts on Twitter is the Beyond_Topline account and one theory they think is that the falling Labour share and Lib Dem increase is due to…

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Defining legacies

Defining legacies

When it comes to Rishi Sunak it appears he will not be remembered for being the UK’s first ethnic minority Prime Minister, or the fact the he is richer than Croesus, or he likely led the Tories to one of their worst defeats in history. No it will be fleeing the D-Day 80th commemorations early. Now I take the view that it takes a few weeks for falls in personal approval ratings to translate in to falls in voting intention…

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