Oh dear, how sad, never mind

Oh dear, how sad, never mind

it is a good sign for the Tories that Suella Braverman’s is struggling to find ten Tory MPs to sign up to her repulsive and divisive rhetoric about the LGBTQIA+¬†and homeless communities because her agenda is the way to achieving a general election result worse than 2024. TSE

The choice of running mate by Kamala Harris could be crucial

The choice of running mate by Kamala Harris could be crucial

In a close election marginal gains will be critical, J.D. Vance is turning out be the biggest duffer since John McCain picked Sarah Palin. Unless she Harris picks as her running mate Harvey Weinstein or the contents of a cat’s litter tray her choice for Veep should be better than Vance, he brings no balance to the Trump ticket and will scare off centrist voters. There is a Betfair market on who Harris will choose, but I cannot see any…

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The latest White House race betting

The latest White House race betting

We’ve started to see some polls (conducted exclusively after Biden’s announcement) which shows Harris leading. My expectation is that the polling will get better for Harris until after the convention (where parties usually get a bounce) and she might even be favourite in this market then. TSE

Will Trump dump J.D. Vance?

Will Trump dump J.D. Vance?

A fun betting market would be to see if Trump replaces J.D. Vance before the election. Normally the choice of running mates doesn’t normally impact election results but I wonder if the choice of J.D. Vance might be an exception. His latest views are like to put off independent votes and his past comments on Trump are likely to feature heavily in Harris campaign’s ads. The comments by Vance are going to annoY Trump who demands fealty from those who…

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Lawyers are awesome, a continuing series

Lawyers are awesome, a continuing series

It is often said televised political debates do not effect elections but last month’s debate absolutely upended that axiom and I wonder if another debate could be another gamechanger. The prosecutor versus the serial criminal would be pure box office and it could be political theatre like we’ve never seen before. If the self confessed pussy grabber and Insurrection-in-Chief ducks out of any debates with Harris then that should lead to a boost for Harris in the polls. As an…

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