Trump drops the F bomb as Bibi disrespects him

Trump drops the F bomb as Bibi disrespects him

What a time to be alive with a POTUS dropping the F bomb so publicly. I feel sorry for geopolitical/foreign policy analysts who have to predict the world with Trump as POTUS. I expect there will be consequences for Bibi and Israel from Trump and the GOP. TSE

Who will be Tory leader at the next general election?

Who will be Tory leader at the next general election?

Smarkets have some very low liquidity markets on who will be Tory leader at the next general election but it chimes in with markets where punters think Kemi Badenoch is doomed where it is believed that senior members of Hezbollah and the IRFC have longer career prospects that Kemi Badenoch. I cannot see any value here, if it wasn’t for the time value of money backing Boris Johnson to not be Tory leader at the next election would be the…

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The Challenge for… Reform UK

The Challenge for… Reform UK

This is the third in a series looking at the challenges and opportunities for the 7 main Great Britain parties. Today we will look at the emergence of Reform UK. Breadth vs depth It is worth comparing Reform with the LDs, as the two sharply contrast. Reform got a slightly higher share of the vote in 2024, but the LDs got many more seats. To understand why, we need to look at the distribution of votes for each party. Vote…

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Apologising for Brexit

Apologising for Brexit

Monday is the ninth anniversary of when the United Kingdom voted to impose economic sanctions on itself and it is no surprise pollsters are polling and whilst all the focus on the majority wanting to rejoin/having closer relations with the EU without rejoining my focus will be elsewhere. The majority of Brits think Brexit was the wrong decision/a failure and the Tories are getting the blame both as a party and individual people, the question is how they can fix…

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