politicalbetting.com

Last November I wrote a piece pointing out the Conservatives were the 1/10 favourites to win the 2025 Canadian election. Whilst I was expecting some swingback I wasn’t expecting this level of movement but thanks to the Ayrshire hotelier has changed things. When it comes elections and the betting therein we might have to factor things like this. Imagine Sir Keir Starmer calls an election for late 2028 which Reform are set to win and then Trump intervenes and sees…

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It is going to be a long four years. TSE

If I were Robert Jenrick I would be sharing this finding from JL Partners to my colleagues pointing out the public see Kemi Badenoch as useless as the left hand side of the Countdown clock. I am wondering if backing the 5/2 that Ladbrokes are offering on 2025 being the year Badenoch is replaced might be value, previously my expectation was 2026 if the Tories finish behind Labour and Reform in the Scottish and Welsh devolved elections. TSE

I suspect if Elon Musk (and Donald Trump) try to intervene in British politics it will backfire, Rupert Lowe will be best advised to swerve an endorsement from the The Fast & The Fuhrer. TSE

TSE

Why is it that the US’s vaunted constitutional protections, separations of powers and independent institutions we have heard so much about over the years have just dissolved like wet tissue? Putting them in a Constitution, in founding documents may make them seem important and venerable. But stripped of all the historical baggage, they are like all procedures. They work because it is assumed that everyone understands their point, acts in good faith and with a modicum of good judgment (or…

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