politicalbetting.com

The one thing I find amusing is that people on social media and elsewhere are stridently predicting the outcome of the next general election some four and a half years away. Governments that become rather unpopular in the early part of the parliament can go on and win the general election, as I allude to in the headline Thatcher’s first term saw her party slip to third place in the polls in her first term then won a landslide at…

Read More Read More

Like the Brexit referendum there’s a plethora of evidence that voters regret how they voted in the AV referendum. Like Brexit I expect the gap to get wider as the reality of decision confronts voters. Winning a majority of 174 on a vote share of 33.7%, FPTP seems iniquitous. It isn’t out of the realms of the possibility that Labour wins an even bigger majority at the next election with a lower share of the vore whilst the Tories and…

Read More Read More

I suspect if Nigel Farage intends to remain Donald Trump’s personal proctologist then his and Reform’s ratings will take a hit. TSE

TSE

Prior to the general election I said many times one of the reasons I expected the Tories to get absolutely shellacked was their handling of the cost of living crisis. Labour have four and a half years to turn things around, if they do not then I would expect them to get similarly shellacked. TSE

As the old joke goes the only reason the Pyramids are still in Egypt is that they were too heavy for the British to steal. Quite rightly Brits don’t want to handle stolen goods. TSE

If Musk via his companies makes permissible donations to Farage’s party to the value reported then would be a game changer in some respects. Whilst there are spending limits during election periods, outside that a £100 million donation would help Reform to target voters and make their vote more efficient. As Kamala Harris can attest there’s not automaticity that outspending your opponents leads you to winning the election. I also expect a foreigner trying to impact a general election will…

Read More Read More

One thing that could allow Starmer to break his election promises about tax rises on income tax and other certain taxes would be increased defence spending due to the actions of the Russian bear and the rhetoric of the incoming US President. If you’re worried about nuclear war then I suggest you watch the 1984 film Threads which is currently available to watch on the BBC iPlayer, click this link here. TSE