Whilst there is a strong incumbency bias in best PM polling it is notable when a PM doesn’t consistently lead in this metric but what I find notable in this polling that Kemi Badenoch is a rounding error away from being fourth in what normally has been a two horse race for decades. Being ahead of Sir Ed Dacey by a mere 1% must sting for Badenoch. The good news for her is the 44% who say they are undecided,…
When I first saw the map of the YouGov MRP I thought it looked like a map of the old West and East Germany. Alongside Canada, Germany will be the major election to bet on in 2025, like Canada I am not as knowledgable enough to bet considerable sums yet, so if you have any insights please share your thoughts in the comments. TSE
Political integrity is a lot like virginity, once it has gone it is very hard to get back. I am not sure which is the bigger achievement, 52% of your own voters think you are quite sleazy as the Tories have managed or 54% of the wider electorate thinking you are sleazy six months into government. TSE
The difference between now and the Truss interregnum is that Starmer and Reeves will be given time by their party to try and turn things around, we are potentially four and a half years from the next general election. TSE
If we do end up with a by-election in this seat following Mike Amesbury’s guilty plea I would expect a Labour hold but on a very low turnout then it is possible we get a surprise but a potential by election could cause problems for Labour, the Tories, and Reform. If the Tories finish a fair distance behind Reform that puts pressure on Kemi Badenoch’s leadership because she cannot stop the leakage to Reform. I do think the the Tories…
I suspect this is why Tory attacks on Labour’s stint in government so far aren’t really having impact. TSE
Somebody made the observation to me last night that the 75% of the polls conducted wholly in 2025 have Reform ahead of the Tories, admittedly this from admittedly small sample size. My friend observed to me that this year opinion polls will shape the narrative a lot with the likely postponement of so many local elections this year. If this trend becomes solidified then I think it puts Kemi Badenoch under pressure to turn things around, the narrative the Tories…
TSE