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Author: TSE

A nice tip to start your Sunday

A nice tip to start your Sunday

Based on the Survation MRP published last night Labour are in third place in Clacton just 3.1% behind Reform’s Nigel Farage, it can only take a little bit of movement and/or the MRP to be slightly out for Labour to come through the middle and win. Both Ladbrokes and Bet 365 have Labour 8/1 to win whilst Betfair have Labour at 13 and I reckon that’s worth a flutter although I expect this will be a bet that joins my…

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Survation is great for Lab and the SNP but awful for the Tories

Survation is great for Lab and the SNP but awful for the Tories

The SNP figure seems a bit of an outlier, it will be interesting to see if other pollsters that showing similar scores. It will be quite something if the Tories only have 35 more MPs than the SNP who are only standing in just one part of the UK. The Reform seat figure seems high because of the way of FPTP but you might want to start buying Reform and SNP on the spreads and sell the Tories if this…

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Unite the right

Unite the right

The key finding for me is ’74-76% dislike Rishi Sunak and the party’ which means it is very stupid to start sticking the Reform vote share to the Tory vote share. Under first past the post when you’re opponents are divided you do well, I suggest this is good news for Labour and the Lib Dems and is impacting my betting strategies. TSE

Understanding the exit poll

Understanding the exit poll

In the run up to every recent general election there’s speculation that the exit poll will be wrong this time because of some new change. In 2010 it was the Lib Dem surge, in 2015 it was the rise of UKIP and the SNP, in 2017 and 2019 there were Brexit related issues but the exit poll team dealt with those and gave us very accurate exit polls. In the run up to this election there’s new issues being flagged,…

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Keir was the toolmaker’s son

Keir was the toolmaker’s son

Matt Singh is right, not everybody thinks/follows politics in the way we do which might impact our betting strategies. As more people realise Starmer is a lawyer then his ratings should rise further. Millions of voters are saying ‘The only one who could ever reach me was the son of a toolmaker man.’ TSE

Profiles in leadership

Profiles in leadership

Longstanding readers of Political Betting know how much faith Mike Smithson and I put in the Ipsos MORI leader satisfaction ratings. Thanks to Rob Ford for digging into the numbers one month before the election which shows Rishi Sunak and the current Tories are record breakers for all the wrong reasons. From these figures we can infer that the Tories are on course for the mother of all shellackings on the 4th of July. There’s seems very little left for…

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Kaboom! Is Sunak the Tory David Lloyd George?

Kaboom! Is Sunak the Tory David Lloyd George?

This feels like a genuine tipping point for the Tory party. Like David Lloyd George, Sunak could be his party’s last ever PM? This is the sort of polling that will cause panic and discipline to fall apart within the Tory party. That said Labour on 37% might start setting off some concerns at Labour HQ especially as Con + Reform equals 37%. TSE

Lib Dems! Winning here?

Lib Dems! Winning here?

One thing that has been noticed with recent polls is that there is shift away from Labour but what does that mean? If this polling shift was bad for Labour then it would mean Starmer’s ratings should start falling as well but they are improving (as well as Sunak’s falling). One of the best polling analysts on Twitter is the Beyond_Topline account and one theory they think is that the falling Labour share and Lib Dem increase is due to…

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