A few weeks ago I tipped Jeremy Corbyn or Zarah Sultana to become Prime Minister before 2030 at odds of 100/1 with Ladbrokes. I don’t expect either to become PM before 2030 (odds fallings from 100/1 to 50/1 means something has gone from being extremely unlikely to very unlikely) but I’d expect some polls in the next few months showing their party doing well which would impact their odds so I saw it as a decent trading bet. I still…
Based on current polling the the future for the Tory party is as rosy as it was for Japan on the evening of the 5th of August 1945. Relentless optimist that I am I do think there is an opportunity for the Tory party by portraying itself as the party of fiscal discipline in contrast to Labour and Reform but I have said in the past the way to achieve that ia to repudiate Liz Truss in a way the…
Brexit isn’t going well and this poll is another example of the public’s dissatisfaction with it. I am quite surprised that a majority want a second referendum within the next five years (when you exclude don’t knows.) If Labour are still struggling in the polls in the run up to the 2029 general election a second referendum might be Labour’s hail Mary move. If you don’t mind tying up your money for five years then you might want to take…
I hope a bookie puts up a market on Canada joining the EU (or at least opening talks about joining the EU.). I love Canadian politics, this year was really profitable for me, because I tipped Pierre Poilievre to lose his seat at 14/1. TSE
The English & Welsh Greens are having a leadership election (and you can bet on that outcome with Ladbrokes) and I think the value, well a 20% return, is on backing Zach Polanski. Mr Polanski is a man who has tried in the past to try and enlarge women’s breasts through hypnotherapy which I am sure will be focussed upon if he becomes leader, if the headline ‘what a tit’ isn’t used I will be sorely disappointed. Longer term I…
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I think this is an example of post hoc ergo propter hoc as Keir was never a popular name unlike David. Only five boys were named Nigel last year which gives some context to the above numbers, in fact more boys were named Lucifer than Nigel. TSE
If the polling maintains this current trajectory then I would expect it would put the kibosh on any talk of Trump running in 2028 and damage the GOP in the 2026 midterms. We saw in 2024 how not looking compos mentis is debiltating for a president and their party. TSE