A Westminster insider once observed to me that poll politicians most take notice of is the poll that has them doing the worst as politicians are a glass half empty type of people and this YouGov poll today is a shocker. The Tory party which (in)famously only ever panics in a crisis might soon be having another ‘moment’ if they start ending up behind the Lib Dems and still stuck in the teens. Up until quite recently I thought Kemi…
Whilst the Brexit Party won Wales in the 2019 European elections this Senedd polling is seismic, and if turns out to be true I wonder if Labour finish third or lower then Starmer might quit. Starmer did contemplate quitting after the Hartlepool by-election so Starmer might actually quit after losing Wales, so the 5/1 on him quitting in 2026 offered by Ladbrokes looks tempting. TSE
This polling from More In Common is interesting on several levels. It appears that new Reform supporters are driven by a disillusionment with Labour and the Tories than unequivocally backing every Reform policy enthusiastically. If Labour can display some competence and deliver some improvements they could win back plenty of supporters, with potentially over four years to the next election there’s plenty of time for them to turn it around but so far it appears Labour are trying to prove…
In a Monday interview, MAGA influencer Steve Bannon asked Greene what advice she would give to President Donald Trump as Congress tries to pass legislation based on his agenda. “Stick with the agenda and ignore the people here in Washington that are trying to get you to do something different,” Greene advised. “It’s the Republicans that are the problem, Steve.” TSE
A fun betting market for the next general election would be the lowest winning vote share at the next election would be. TSE
Having seen in the past John Howard lose his seat this isn’t a new experience in Australian politics but the second leader in a week associated/compared/endorsed to/by Donald Trump lose the election and their seat. I wonder if we’ll see a similar impact at the next UK general election. Being a friend of Donald might be a problem. Until a couple of months ago the Coalition led under the two-party-preferred polling. One difference between Australia and UK is that Australia…
After Mark Carney delivered the most consequential victory in Canada since the Battle of the Plains of Abraham attention now switches to Australia. I cannot see any value in the markets being offered by William Hill. It will be interesting to see how the republican Anthony Albanese uses his expected mandate to take back control from Australia’s unelected head of state. TSE
I am still digesting today’s results but it is clear the old political duopoly is over, from a betting perspective the next general election might be the one where UNS falls apart completely. Exciting time for punters. TSE