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Author: TSE

Let’s party like it is 2005

Let’s party like it is 2005

I am one of those people who still thinks the general election result will be better for the Tories than the current polls imply (although I am not ruling out a 1931 in reverse result) but I am intrigued by this analysis from the political data scientist of The Economist. This nowcast sees the Tories win just short of 200 seats which would be comparable to the 2005 general election result which every Tory would take right now. I still…

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The woman who lost to a lettuce wants to comeback as Tory leader

The woman who lost to a lettuce wants to comeback as Tory leader

On Betfair you can get odds of 100/1 on Liz Truss to succeed Rishi Sunak as Tory leader, my money is on backing the lettuce laying Liz Truss in this market, it would be an act of political seppuku by the Tories to install her as leader, just look at the Ipsos polling on her. I really do worry about her lack of self awareness and denial about her disastrous stint as Prime Minister, somebody this deluded shouldn’t be working…

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A plea to the bookies

A plea to the bookies

Can we please have constituency markets and spreads for the general election? We are potentially a few weeks away from a general election and as far as I can see there are no individual constituency markets so we cannot bet on the most intriguing seats like Didcot & Wantage. There are also no seat spread betting opportunities which is where loins are girded and some of my biggest ever political wins have occured. I followed Mike Smithson in selling Tory…

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The world is changed

The world is changed

The world is changed, I feel it in the water, I feel it in the earth, I smell it in the air, I see it in the polling, the era of Boris Johnson is over. The stand out figure is that even a majority of Leavers do not want him back as an MP, even more so than the fact 2019 Tories are evenly split on the question. If this question asked if the country wanted Boris Johnson back as…

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What’s this going to do to the May results?

What’s this going to do to the May results?

My expectation is that it will have no material impact on May’s elections, as noted in the Tweets above, those who were excited about Sir Keir’s curries will become similarly excited. However if she is charged I suspect she will have to resign from the shadow cabinet until she is cleared by the courts as politicians cannot be seen to break electoral law, Caesar’s wife and all that jazz. TSE

Voter suppression could work for the Tories

Voter suppression could work for the Tories

I suspect Best for Britain might be wrong because last year Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg admitted the voter ID changes were an attempt at voter suppression that backfired he said “Parties that try and gerrymander end up finding their clever scheme comes back to bite them, as, dare I say, we found by insisting on voter ID for elections….We found the people who didn’t have ID were elderly and they, by and large, voted Conservative, so we made it hard for…

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