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Author: TSE

Why all eyes should be on Maine on Tuesday

Why all eyes should be on Maine on Tuesday

As Maine goes, so goes the nation? I suspect apart from the senate result Maine won’t be high on the priorities of election watchers on Tuesday as the common consent is that Biden should win the state easily (he’s currently around 1/7 on Betfair to win Maine.) So why all eyes on Maine, no not because of the fantastic lobsters Maine offers but because  Maine will be the first state ever to use ranked choice voting for a Presidential election. The form…

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Why this isn’t looking like 2016 redux

Why this isn’t looking like 2016 redux

Another example of why 2020 is unlike 2016? The betting markets are baffling to some, if the polls were reversed and Trump had the leads Biden currently has Trump’s odds on Betfair would be something close to 1.01 as opposed to Biden’s 1.5. But there’s plenty of indicators 2020 is not like 2016, like the charts above. My view is that the Dems are on course to retain the House, if they do that my hunch is that Biden also…

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This is starting to look like landslide territory.

This is starting to look like landslide territory.

What does Trump have in his armoury if the voters trust Joe Biden more on the economy? A fortnight ago I said that with the pollster Quinnipiac Donald Trump was the preferred choice of the American voters to manage the economy, but it is becoming clear that with a few pollsters Trump doesn’t hold that advantage. As with the UK general election of 2015 and the EU referendum the following year it was clear (in hindsight) that the supplementaries were…

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My logic for bailing out of the spread betting markets on this year’s White House Race

My logic for bailing out of the spread betting markets on this year’s White House Race

I’ll let you all into a little secret, it is entirely possible the stonking huge polling leads that Biden has turn out to be accurate but he still doesn’t win the Presidency. One scenario is where Biden gets votes where he doesn’t need them and Trump gets the votes where he needs them, but the scenario I’m going to look at today is that America isn’t a functioning democracy. With a pandemic on it has been obvious for some time…

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A year is a long time in politics. Your regular reminder that the betting markets do get it wrong.

A year is a long time in politics. Your regular reminder that the betting markets do get it wrong.

2019 was an absolute batshit crazy year wasn’t it? But then 2020 said hold my beer on the bat shit crazy front. Three of the top five in the Ladbrokes market on next PM a year ago were no longer MPs a little over two months later, betting markets can get it spectacularly wrong at times. TSE