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I’ve have previously noted that two of out of the three MRP polls this year shows the SNP winning a majority of Scottish Westminster seats at the next general election which seems hard to reconcile with Labour winning 400 plus seats this polling does give some potential explanations. A net negative 53% says the Tory government doesn’t deserve to be re-elected in Scotland a net negative 14% say the Scottish government doesn’t deserve to be re-elected, so there’s less intensity…

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I salute Mike Munson of the Green Party for this awesome bar chart which is one of the truly logic defying bar charts I have ever seen and I’ve been following Lib Dem bar chart crimes since the last century. TSE

The Times have done a bit of a deep dive into the latest YouGov MRP and it is clear Labour’s vote is becoming more efficient, as The Times notes The MRP model poll finds that Labour’s vote is down on 2019 in more than 50 constituencies, predominantly urban seats where progressive supporters have been disillusioned by Starmer’s move to the centre and his stance over the conflict in Gaza. However, this does not prevent Labour from retaining all these seats, many…

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One thing that makes me pause about Biden winning the election in November is the number of Americans who say the economy is going badly yet this poll finding makes me doubt that. As we can see in those states above those voters also say their state economy is going great. My initial thought it might be the voters think it is down to the GOP governors in those states but most of those states have Democratic Party governors so…

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As a regular user of the Grindr app of many years I didn’t think anything could shock me when it came to that app but the behaviour of William Wragg, the Tory MP for Hazel Grove, has managed to leave me shocked and speechless. Asking for dick pics or other intimate pics on that app or elsewhere isn’t uncommon but Wragg made two unforgivable mistakes, one of which should be an immediate career ender. To stop him being compromised he…

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What I find striking about these figures are the scores for social media and newspapers for likely Labour voters. My hunch is the written media will not have such an impact on Labour as in the past but that this election campaign could be swung online against Labour where things aren’t quite so tightly regulated. TSE

One of the reasons I am confident that Joe Biden will prevail in November is abortion and Donald Trump’s poor ratings with Independents and these poor ratings now extend to the Republicans. Whilst the Democrats have poor ratings with Independents but not as bad as the GOP as Boris Johnson can attest you can win a general election with poor ratings when your opponent has even worse ratings. I do expect the ratings to get worse for the GOP over…

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What I find really interesting about this MRP is that it sees Labour increase its number of seats from 385 seats in the last YouGov MRP in January which means we may need to stop talking about swingback but the opposite of swingback could happen. Labour will be delighted that this is the first MRP this year showing Scotland rejecting division and secession. I will advise PBers that MRPs can be glorified standing voting intentions and only become more accurate…

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