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Author: TSE

Can Reform outpoll the Tories with YouGov?

Can Reform outpoll the Tories with YouGov?

Every poll seems to bring a new a record breaking poll for Reform and Ladbrokes have a market on whether YouGov will have a poll reaching the apotheosis of outpolling the the Tories before the general election. I can see it happening in a very narrow window after the Tories get gubbed in the locals and there’s a vote of confidence in Sunak and the Tories commit their regular bout of seppuku however as Ladbrokes are not offering both sides of…

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Some good news for Sunak

Some good news for Sunak

The number that really stands out is the 2019 Tory voters a group that Sunak hasn’t been very popular with. I think that group like the rest of the country knows a third consecutive mandateless Prime Minister is utterly farcical and such a change will bring new dramas for the country and party. The poll represents some good news for Penny Mordaunt but leading the Tories to a 15% popular vote defeat instead of 21% defeat isn’t that impressive in…

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Were you up for Sunak?

Were you up for Sunak?

Whilst the focus on the MRP will be the size of the Labour majority/the Tory wipeout and Sunak at risk of losing his seat this is the second MRP this year showing the SNP overwhelmingly winning the majority of Scottish seats. Polls should be smoked but not inhaled especially MRPs i have my doubts about the Reform figure and where their support will go if they don’t stand. I cannot see Sunak’s seat going Labour, looking under the hood this…

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They shall have wars and pay for their presumption

They shall have wars and pay for their presumption

About a decade ago I had a conversation with a political adviser who with equal measure of delight and astonishment admitted that since David Cameron became Tory leader the Tories led Labour on the NHS which was something nobody could have predicted saying it was as likely as Labour leading the Tories on defence. The sad thing for the Tories and even more importantly for the country is that is polling was inevitable, there have been enough warnings that the…

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No leads Yes by 28% in the latest independence poll

No leads Yes by 28% in the latest independence poll

Redfield & Wilton earlier on this week published their regular Welsh polling, one thing that Sir Keir Starmer will not have to deal with Welsh secession if he becomes PM. The polling, like pretty much every other poll in the country, also brings truly dire polling for the Tories where it is feasible to see them polling third behind Reform, this could be replicated at the general election which would be a real political wooden spoon. This could be down…

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Happy first anniversay First Minister

Happy first anniversay First Minister

When it comes to Scottish polling one important caveat is often missed and that is that soon the SNP will be soon be entering their eighteenth year of being in power at Holyrood. Given that context I think Yousaf’s and the SNP’s polling isn’t that bad, Sunak and the Tories would love to have that kind of polling figures GB wide and while Jim Murphy’s post might be funny it masks the fact that during 2024 the SNP have been…

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Angela, Angela, when will those clouds all disappear?

Angela, Angela, when will those clouds all disappear?

I suspect this story about Angela Rayner is Currygate Mark II which rather got Tory partisans and Starmer critics rather excited but with the locals coming up this is a distraction Labour could do without. The one thing that is different is that the Dan Neidle is querying some of Angela Rayner’s assertions which should worry her. Mr Neidle is the last person I would want getting involved in my tax affairs. TSE

Hoist with his own petard

Hoist with his own petard

The great contradiction of British politics today is the Tories talking about cracking down on small numbers of illegal immigration yet consistently delivering record breaking legal immigration, this polling captures that and why Sunak is in a bit of pickle. TSE