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Author: TSE

The Life of Nigel

The Life of Nigel

It’s all getting a bit The Judean People’s Front, The Judean People’s Popular Front, The Campaign for a Free Galilee, The Popular Front of Judea, and The People’s Front for Judea around the populist right but I suspect Nigel Farage’s brand will be resilient enough to deal with these splitters. TSE

Control Alt Delete

Control Alt Delete

One of my criticisms of this Starmer government is that they don’t act like a government that won a majority of 174 last year, the epitaph so far is a government in office but not in power. TSE

If you’re betting on the 2028 White House race take note

If you’re betting on the 2028 White House race take note

Alastair Meeks has forwarded me his exchange with Betfair which is something several of us have been pondering for a while, should Betfair list Donald Trump on the 2028 market and what happens if he runs in 2028 (or is allowed to run by the conservative majority on SCOTUS.) PB was founded because of the 2004 White House race and it pains me to tell PBers to avoid betting on the American presidential markets but the 2024 race was a…

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Robert Jenrick’s secret weapon: being a lawyer as the country loves lawyers

Robert Jenrick’s secret weapon: being a lawyer as the country loves lawyers

I don’t think it is any coincidence that from 1945 onwards the three best leaders of the opposition were lawyers, whilst the fourth, The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton is now practically a lawyer following the news that he is in talks with law firm DLA Piper to go and work for them. If we add in Mrs Thatcher sustained electoral success then Robert Jenrick should play up his legal background if he wants to replace Kemi Badenoch and win…

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Are you ready for Trump winning 2028?

Are you ready for Trump winning 2028?

Oddly this interview with Eric Trump has cheered me up because I’ve been saying and betting for a while that I am expecting a Trump to be the Republican nominee in 2028, it might Donald Trump, it might be Donald Trump Jr, or Eric Trump (I also have long shot bets on Jared Kushner). If you’re not already on you can back Donald Trump Jr at 34 on Betfair, Eric Trump and Lara Trump at 66/1 each at Ladbrokes, and…

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Badenoch is entering Truss territory

Badenoch is entering Truss territory

Tim Shipman in The Spectator is telling us about the dire straits the Tories find themselves in under Kemi Badenoch, Ipsos has found Kemi Badenoch has the worst ratings six month in for any Leader of the Opposition since Ipsos started polling in the 1970s, coupled with all the election losses, defections, and other dire polling Tory MPs are antsy. I found this part striking Ross Thomson, a former Aberdeen MP who briefly ran Badenoch’s leadership campaign in Scotland, defected…

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Your regular reminder that the Tories & Reform are two discrete blocs not one homogenous bloc

Your regular reminder that the Tories & Reform are two discrete blocs not one homogenous bloc

The most interesting finding is that more people are prepared to vote against Labour than they are Reform. While I don’t feel confident enough to predict the outcome of the next election I feel confident in saying the next election with feature hitherto unknown levels of tactical voting. TSE

The politics of envy

The politics of envy

I find this poll utterly depressing, like Brexit, the voters are prepared to make the country worse off financially because of values. I have recently thoiught about taking a job overseas, more polling like this and I definitely will be going, the country should be about aspiration. TSE