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Author: TSE

A 50% return in fewer than three months?

A 50% return in fewer than three months?

Based on the most recent polling this bet feels like a steal. My expectation is that once the election campaign starts proper the more the public get to see Susan Hall the more the Tory share of the vote will crater. The change in the voting system should also focus the minds of the electorate, I think any risk of letting the Tories in will boost Khan’s vote. I am breaking one of my cardinal rules of betting which is…

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Upending assumptions

Upending assumptions

One of the major pillars for me expecting Joe Biden to win re-election is abortion. The anticipated red wave election in 2022 failed to materialise was down to the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization in mid 2022. The Republicans ended up with just a net gain of 4 seats in the House and also allowed the Democratic Party to maintain control of the Senate, and there have also been several elections…

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The long road to a united Ireland

The long road to a united Ireland

In 1990, the show that spawned the show Picard and its better than sex season three, Star Trek: The Next Generation aired an episode called The Higher Ground which said Irish reunification took place in 2024, with yesterday’s momentous events it would be appear the writer of that episode was only a few years out. My expectation has always been Ireland would reunify in my lifetime due to demographics but Brexit has expedited that, as Boris Johnson and the Brexiteers…

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Scottish independence hasn’t gone away you know

Scottish independence hasn’t gone away you know

“Devolution will kill [Scottish] nationalism stone dead” – George Robertson, Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland, 1995. As bad political predictions go George Robertson’s prediction only has Sion Simon as a rival and I worry Labour are going to make the same mistake again. The latest polling in the tweets above shows great news for Labour and Unionism following the absolute clown show from the SNP over the last year yet whilst trust in the SNP leaders and SNP seem to have damaged…

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Thank you Tories for all the betting opportunities

Thank you Tories for all the betting opportunities

I suspect we are heading for the trigger point for a vote of confidence in Sunak, a vote I expect him to win comfortably because there is no clear replacement but some Tories think following the Australian precedent of replacing a PM every few months is the way to go. TSE

Sunak is a liability in contrast to Starmer

Sunak is a liability in contrast to Starmer

We might start having to consider the possibility that not only swingback doesn’t happen but the Labour lead becomes wider between now and the general elections thanks to the relative strengths of the party leaders, particularly if Sunak and the Tories try to make the election campaign a presidential campaign, like Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak might be best off hiding in a fridge. TSE

Rwandan discussions

Rwandan discussions

A market I would love to see is if any migrants actually get sent to Rwanda before the general election I suspect the answer would be zero. What these findings from YouGov show is that public think the policy isn’t effective nor value for money which means even if people are sent to Rwanda it might not be a vote winner. Rishi Sunak appears to have wasted an awful lot of political capital for little reward, this is the sort…

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