Your regular reminder that betting markets are often laughably wrong
Although as I noted at the time when the next Pope markets went up this was a market to avoid as it was the epitome of an insiders’ market. TSE
This bodes well for Labour to receive tactical votes
As we saw in last week’s by-election every vote matters and if I were a Labour strategist I would be happy with this polling, I suspect plenty on the centre left will vote tactically to keep out Farage and Reform. I think it would be a mistake to lump the centre-left as one homogenous bloc as it would be to lump the Tories and Reform as one bloc too. TSE
A 50/1 tip to start your day
I expect when people realise I am backing the Lib Dems to win the most seats at the next general election some of you will send me links to the Gamble Aware website but my logic is based on this being an excellent (trading) bet for the following reasons. So that’s why I think 50/1 is good trading bet an you can also get around 48/1 on Betfair. TSE
The Tories are a rounding error from being fourth
A Westminster insider once observed to me that poll politicians most take notice of is the poll that has them doing the worst as politicians are a glass half empty type of people and this YouGov poll today is a shocker. The Tory party which (in)famously only ever panics in a crisis might soon be having another ‘moment’ if they start ending up behind the Lib Dems and still stuck in the teens. Up until quite recently I thought Kemi…
Like the Welsh rugby union team Welsh Labour are performing really badly
Whilst the Brexit Party won Wales in the 2019 European elections this Senedd polling is seismic, and if turns out to be true I wonder if Labour finish third or lower then Starmer might quit. Starmer did contemplate quitting after the Hartlepool by-election so Starmer might actually quit after losing Wales, so the 5/1 on him quitting in 2026 offered by Ladbrokes looks tempting. TSE
Winning the argument vs the other lot being useless
This polling from More In Common is interesting on several levels. It appears that new Reform supporters are driven by a disillusionment with Labour and the Tories than unequivocally backing every Reform policy enthusiastically. If Labour can display some competence and deliver some improvements they could win back plenty of supporters, with potentially over four years to the next election there’s plenty of time for them to turn it around but so far it appears Labour are trying to prove…
I agree with Marjorie Taylor Greene
In a Monday interview, MAGA influencer Steve Bannon asked Greene what advice she would give to President Donald Trump as Congress tries to pass legislation based on his agenda. “Stick with the agenda and ignore the people here in Washington that are trying to get you to do something different,” Greene advised. “It’s the Republicans that are the problem, Steve.” TSE
A prelude to the next general election?
A fun betting market for the next general election would be the lowest winning vote share at the next election would be. TSE