Whatever the outcome of the charges are I suspect this will have a profound impact on betting markets. Perhaps I am being hopelessly naive but my expectation is that political insiders will no longer bet on politics because they risk bad publicity and worse, they just cannot take the risk. Having worked in a regulatory role one thing I will say is you cannot misunderestimate the stupidity and greed of some people to make money, ethics is a county in…
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One message that Nigel Farage and Reform are pushing is that the Tories and Labour are effectively one party and that it is time for something completely different. That doubling of Labour voters who think the Tories and Labour are similar suggests this might be a fertile ground for Farage & Reform, as well as the Greens, Lib Dems, and for the Celtic nationalists as Labour’s support potentially splinters in several directions. TSE
If these results are a harbinger for next month’s locals then Labour and Sir Keir Starmer are going to going to to have a horrible night on the 1st of May. TSE
The Republicans have regained the favourites slot after Trump’s latest tariffs announcement. I suspect over the next few months this betting market may end up reflecting the US markets both in terms of equity and borrowing costs. TSE
i find this polling intriguing because I was expecting more Republican voters to a) want Trump to have a third term and b) believe the constitution allows him to do so. TSE