Where is the American Leo Amery?
TSE
Making your mind up
This polling confirms my theory that Rishi Sunak erred in holding a July election, had he waited until the autumn then Nigel Farage would have focussed his time and energies on being Donald Trump’s personal proctologist rather than focussing on the UK general election. Reform supporters must be toasting Sunak’s timing with a glass or two of Bucks Fizz. This will be the stat that will haunts Sunak. Nigel Farage’s entry into the campaign helped solidify the voting intentions of…
It’s getting very messy
I thought the Democratic nominee would be one of those relatively risk free markets where Biden would be the nominee with a few savers on Harris and Whitmer. I know I am not the only PBer who will end up in the poorhouse if Michelle Obama or Gavin Newsom become the Dem nominee or if we see President Obama or President Newsom in January 2025. This betting market is aging me. If you’re entering this market as a newbie, I…
Will the quiet man be back and turning up the volume?
I suspect Sunak will continue as leader until his replacement is elected, from a betting point of view the bookies are quite clear interim leaders do not count as Sunak’s successor so don’t go wasting your money on IDS replacing Sunak. As an aside Jim Callaghan remained as Labour leader for eighteen months after his general election defeat to the Tory party’s first woman leader. TSE
Barack Obama has moved the Betfair market
If Barack Obama comes out and says this publicly then it is game over for Biden if it already isn’t, Betfair has moved sharply. In my humble opinion other than Jill Biden only Barack Obama could persuade Biden to withdraw. The Betfair market movement today seems to back that up. TSE
How Betfair reacted to the failed Trump assassination attempt
I think punters are slowly realising that two failed assassination attempts on Gerald Ford didn’t help him win the 1976 presidential election. The frequent crossovers between Harris and Biden is fascinating. TSE
Everybody loves the Lib Dems (after a fashion)
The two things that stand out for me is the Lib Dems having such broad popularity which if they maintain until the next election means they should do well with tactical voting. Secondly why simply adding the Reform and Tory vote shares in polls and thinking that is the way for the Tories to win again is a deeply flawed idea. TSE
The Dangers of Oppositionalism
Shall I tell you a story. It’s an American story, but it’s generally applicable. In the US, there was once a President called Barack Obama. While he was President, the number of people crossing the Southern Border into the US continued the decline that had started under his predecessor, George W Bush, falling from 723,000 in 2008 to just 416,000 in 2016. Then Donald Trump became President, and made a terribly big fuss about the Southern Border. Democrats weren’t very…