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Or why elections in 2024 were good ones to win It’s a theme I’ve riffed on before, but the last four years have been pretty miserable for consumers in the developed world, largely because commodity prices have risen sharply. And when commodity prices rise, then other prices (but not wages) will follow. Higher natural gas prices mean more expensive electricity, which not only squeezes household budgets, but means that fertilizer is more expensive (the Haber process), making food cost more….

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Shall I tell you a story. It’s an American story, but it’s generally applicable. In the US, there was once a President called Barack Obama. While he was President, the number of people crossing the Southern  Border into the US continued the decline that had started under his predecessor, George W Bush, falling from 723,000 in 2008 to just 416,000 in 2016.  Then Donald Trump became President, and made a terribly big fuss about the Southern Border.  Democrats weren’t very…

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Most of the things that make voters happy or sad, richer or poorer… well… governments have very little power over them.  Be in power in a period of peace and prosperity, and the voters thank you and think you a genius (or at least mildly competent). Be there when the Global Financial Crisis comes around, or when Covid hits, or when commodity prices go spiraling up thanks to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine… well, they blame you. Arnie said it best:…

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Political earthquakes are infrequent, but they do happen. In 2015, in Scotland, the SNP swept the board, taking 56 of the 59 seats on offer. Labour – once dominant – dropped from 41 seats to just a single one, despite winning almost a quarter of the vote. First Past the Post can be cruel. In Canada, in 1993, the Progressive Conservatives contrived to lose 154 of their 156 seats. They went from government to fifth place, dropping behind not just…

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We’ve all forgotten (what with the excitement of Starmer v Sunak), but the US Presidential election continues… and on Betfair exchange, Trump has moved into a commanding lead. Looking at these odds, what stand out to me is not that Trump is odds on (we can argue whether he or Biden should be narrow favorite), but just how big the gap. The polls remains pretty static: Biden and Trump are neck and neck. The Republicans have an advantage in the…

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• See “The Wikipedia Elections Edit War”, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVIl_DJl5NU INTRODUCTION During the Measurement series I have argued that concepts we believe to be universal and eternal are simply not. I discussed the limitations of political positions and the definition of elites, and those articles were fairly straightforward. But now let’s look at a thing that we all think we understand and yet don’t: the concept of a political party. THE LIST See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertas_Spain See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_List_(Italy) The simplest form of…

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This is a three part piece. The first, today, looks at the existential threats that Trump faces that could derail him. The second looks at the national polling, at the third party challengers, and how parties have been performing in real elections. And the final piece looks at the swing states and what is happening on the ground. At the end of which, I will, probably, opine on what Trump’s chances are of becoming the first returning President since Grover…

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The current PB server, which I shall call Icarus, has been doing excellent service for six years. But is now beginning to show its age. With this year having both US elections and UK elections, it’s time for an upgrade. I am a lot better system admin than I was when PB first started, so there’s at least a 50% chance that the server migration will happen without a hitch. It is, however, entirely possible that today will see a…

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