politicalbetting.com

What happened in London at the General Election? As elsewhere, London was a story of Labour success and Conservative disaster. Of the 75 Constituencies, Labour won 59 (+10), the Conservatives 9 (-12), the Liberal Democrats 6 (+3) and the remaining seat was won by Jeremy Corbyn standing as an Independent in Islington North. As for vote share, Labour won 43% (-5), Conservatives 20.5% (-11.5%) and the Liberal Democrats 11% (-4). The Greens won 10%, Reform 9% and the other 6.5%…

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When the Welsh Assembly was approved in 1997 by a wafer-thin margin of 50.3% to 49.7%, it was for just 60 members elected by a silly iteration of the D’Hondt top up system.* This was because Wales wasn’t an important place and the Assembly wasn’t an important institution. Blair called it a ‘parish council’ and many parish councils felt slighted at the comparison. The now Senedd Cymru by contrast is a fairly significant law making body with extensive powers over…

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In the last few days it appears plenty of Dems are prepared to go on record saying they want Biden to stand down as the nominee, it is expected that number will increase once Biden has completed his duties at the NATO summit. Individual gaffes and poor performances can be dismissed but the cumulative effect of them are excessive and place a supererogatory burden on the Biden’s chances of being the nominee and winning the election in November. With the…

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Most of the things that make voters happy or sad, richer or poorer… well… governments have very little power over them.  Be in power in a period of peace and prosperity, and the voters thank you and think you a genius (or at least mildly competent). Be there when the Global Financial Crisis comes around, or when Covid hits, or when commodity prices go spiraling up thanks to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine… well, they blame you. Arnie said it best:…

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If the Tories want to look like a party ready to win a general election. they really need to ditch this melodrama and choose serious people for the leadership and senior roles. Neither Braverman or Badenoch meet the above criteria. To quote Logan Roy you’re not serious people. TSE

Tonight’s result is going to dominate everything in England for the next few days (and potentially longer if England win). Just imagine how stupid the critics of Gareth Southgate must be feeling right now. TSE

A quick update on the 2024 PB Predictions Competition. We now have the result for the UK General Election question which you may remember asked entrants to predict the election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Answer: Labour 172 seat majority (±10% range = 155 to 189). Four people guessed the Labour majority to within 10%: @Cyclefree @NickPalmer @TheWhiteRabbit and closest of all @GF2, whose guess was a Labour majority of 180.  Under the scoring rules they each get 20…

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As the title says, and many here will have gathered from my posts, I am left wing and not in the Labour Party. So you may expect me to be annoyed that Labour have got a massive majority to do with what they wish. And, to some extent, I am. But, when it comes to the actual results of the election and staying up on election night, I was and still am pretty happy – and so were a lot…

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