Public sympathies

Public sympathies

Being seen as pro Palestinian might be a voter winner, so perhaps the contretemps in Rochdale might not be so problematic for Labour and their candidate. Interestingly the criticisms of Israel/the pro Palestinian comments of The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton might also boost the Tories however salience applies here. Things like the NHS, the economy, and dentists will determine how most people vote not events in the Holy Lands. TSE

I agree with David Gauke

I agree with David Gauke

The logic underpinning David Gauke’s argument is very persuasive, this part in particular. Part of the right’s narrative after an election defeat will be, first, that the Tories leaked too many votes to Reform and, second, that the right’s best communicators were not employed in making the Tories’ case. The solution will be obvious to the Tory right. Bring back Boris and bring in Nigel. Unite the right and have in place a team who can connect with ordinary people. It…

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Victory begets victory?

Victory begets victory?

If Starmer looks like a winner and the next general election result seems a foregone conclusion then there may well be complacency which could lower turnout but I expect that’s a Tory hope, my expectation is that there are enough voters who would crawl over broken glass to vote the Tories out. TSE

An update on the Trump crime family

An update on the Trump crime family

I think this judgment is what will hurt Donald Trump a lot personally, being financially castrated. Coupled with his other legal problems it may solidify his support with the insurrectionist MAGA mob it will repel independents and that’s what will hurt him politiically. Hurrah for the legal system that will come for you whether you are a pleb or President. TSE

Analysing yesterday’s by-elections

Analysing yesterday’s by-elections

There have been 21 by elections so far this parliament. What prospects do the results show for the government at the next general election? Let’s start by leaving aside a) the two SNP defences, as neither involved the Conservatives as the main challenging party, and b) Southend West, due to the special circumstances in which no major party challenged the defending Conservatives. This leaves us with 18 contests. The swing from Conservatives to the main challenger (Labour in 14, Liberal…

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Sir Graham Brady’s postie may get a hernia in the next few days

Sir Graham Brady’s postie may get a hernia in the next few days

What is most striking is that three out of four worst Tory by election defeats to Labour since 1945 have come in the last year under Sunak’s leadership, at some point Tory MPs will be thinking even a tub of lard, a lettuce, or Liz Truss would do a better job than Sunak. I suspect a significant body of Tory MPs will think the way to salvation is chasing the 13% of Reform voters which will be a mistake. The…

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Beware the Bookie rules before betting on a GE2024 overall majority

Beware the Bookie rules before betting on a GE2024 overall majority

To illsustrate this thread I am showing how Snarkets define an overall maajority in its GE24 market, As can be seen LAB majority punters will only end up on the winning side if the party chalks up 326 seats which is 124 than was achived at GE2019. It is quite likely that Starmer will get what effectively is a majority but which does not meet the bookie definition. The bookie rules do not take into account factors like Sinn Fein…

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