This really couldn’t be tighter: the models seem to be converging on a very narrow win for Harris, with the only difference at the moment being ev-com having Harris winning North Carolina but losing Michigan, whereas the others have those two flipped. Even with that narrow EC advantage, most of the states, with most of the models, are in one camp or the other by small margins, often just a fraction of 1 per cent. It wouldn’t take much for…
Not a lot of movement from last week, but what there is has generally been in Trump’s favour. The debate might move the needle a bit more noticeably, but in what direction. Changes from last week:All four national polling figures move slightly towards Trump: 1.0% for Nate Silver, 0.5% for 538, 0.4% for RCP, and 0.2% for Princeton’s meta-margin. In the Electoral College, 538 has Arizona moving from Harris to Trump, but still has Harris winning overall. RCP has Nevada…
A piece earlier this week in The Hill by Merrill Matthews made for interesting reading. In a nutshell, Dems are polling really well in key swing states when it comes to the Senate races. And yet when it comes to Trump vs Harris it is basically neck and neck in these states. Here are the respective RCP averages: For Senate: Arizona – Gallego (Dem): +7.3 Nevada – Rosen (Dem): +10.7 Michigan – Slotkin (Dem): +4.8 Penn – Casey (Dem): +3.0…
Welcome to the first in a strictly limited series. Every Monday [1] for the next 9 weeks, I’ll be doing a rundown of the forecasts from the main poll aggregators and analysts [2] for the 2024 US elections. Hopefully this will be useful as a baseline and a reference point for everyone. Of the forecasts included:a) electoral-vote.com and Real Clear Politics are basically poll averages; RCP is included because it’s well known and often quoted, although there are very well…
(For the purposes of this article, I’m only looking at constituencies in Great Britain. Sorry, Northern Ireland, but your politics are a rule unto themselves. Plus – we’re primarily concerned about who can win control of the UK-wide Government). Since the election, we’ve heard a lot about how Labour’s support is “a mile wide and an inch deep.” We’ve also heard about how precarious is the Tory position; there is plenty of possibility for them to fall further. We’re all…
It’s late on 6th November 2024. CNN’s election map guru, John King, has finally filled in the slowest counting counties in the crucial swing states. The result is in… …And neither Trump nor Harris has an electoral college majority. Both main party candidates have failed to secure the magic 270 delegates required either because it is a tie at 269 a piece or because a third party candidate has secured a decent result. So, what happens now? On 9th February…
Cards on the table, I think Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States. At the end of the Democratic National Convention, it’s apparent that the handover of the baton from Biden to Harris has gone more smoothly than anyone predicted, or had a right to expect. A party, more used to thinking of itself as a fractious coalition, is waking up to headlines which declare “Democrats in Array”, and is evidently enjoying the experience. And Harris…
The smart money seems to be moving to Kamala Harris as she rides a wave of Democratic party enthusiasm and her polling shows an edge in key swing states. Although one should always remember the old adage that no ordinary voter switches on to the candidates before Labor Day, there’s a feeling building that this may well be Trump’s last stand. A successful convention this week and a big speech by the Vice President may further secure the polls. Seems…