Crossover happened overnight and it was inevitable wasn’t it? Every day gives us polling showing Harris is on course for victory. The two most striking polls yesterday were the ones in the tweet above and the poll which showed Harris leading Trump by 1% in the Rust Belt, the previous poll had Trump 5% ahead. All those hypothetical polls before Biden’s decision to stand down saying Biden was the only Dem who could beat Trump is a reminder that multi…
I suspect on a practical such a level will be unenforceable because do we really want a law that makes saying God is great is illegal in Arabic but legal in saying it in English, Latin, Greek, Urdu, and a plethora of other languages? This is a law that is nearly as stupid as the people proposing/support such a law. Older PBers will remember when Mrs Thatcher’s government banned the voices of Sinn Fein to be heard on television so…
I hate to brag but as I predicted last month it looks like crossover on the main Betfair presidential market is about to happen very shortly and I thought a good Veep pick might be the tipping point and it looks like it. It’s difficult to not like Tim Walz, he was the guy who came up with the idea of labelling Trump/Vance as weird and is with the clip above he’s quite witty playing on the meme that JD…
If Kamala Harris can maintain this momentum into September then this becomes her election to lose as I expect her to receive a bump after the convention. Picking Tim Walz as her running mate should solidify the lead Harris has as they look very impressive particularly compared to the weirdos that are the gruesome twosome on the Republican ticket. TSE
This polling is a bit of a curate’s egg for Labour a majority of the country support the Chancellor’s following George Osborne’s steps to cut public spending but by nearly 2:1 the country say it is being done in an unfair way as opposed to a fair way. There are no exit markets for Rachel Reeves but I don’t think Sir Keir Starmer will do a Liz Truss and ditch the Chancellor at the first sign of problems/unpopularity. TSE
Replacing Biden with Harris is looking like a great decision so far. Ceteris paribus Trump is likely to win the election if he loses the popular by this margin but we need to start talking about the possibility of Harris winning the election despite losing the popular vote. The more the self confessed pussy grabber chickens out a debate I think this lead will widen for Harris. Like Labour this side of the pond it is possible the Democratic vote…
It is polling like this which reinforces my view that Donald Trump should be the favourite to win the election this year. As a general rule people rarely vote to make themselves poorer but Kamala Harris has time to ensure Trump’s wider negatives negate this lead. The originator of the ‘it’s the economy, stupid’ quote the Ragin’ Cajun James Carville would remind us all that healthcare is also important in this context. One crumb of comfort for Team Harris is…
This time a fortnight ago Joe Biden was the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party and on course to lose the election but things have changed someone. I think the major difference is how Harris is campaigning to Biden (and most definitely different to Hillary Clinton) which brings states in to play that previously were not and gives Harris a much broader route to victory. Once Harris confirms her running mate I will look at the individual state markets where…