One thing that is very uncertain in this parliament is that when Labour become unpopular (as all governments do) where will their support go? It has the potential to splinter in several directions, to the Tories, Reform, the Lib Dems, in North Britain to the SNP, and my expectation a lot of that support could end up with the Greens. But the influx of the new Greens could see the Green support fracture. This analysis is skewed to an England…
I think we are close to the point where Donald Trump is value. Not picking Josh Shapiro appears to have not harmed Harris in Pennsylvania. TSE
PBers who were around for the 2020 US presidential election will remember that no pollster garnered as much ‘attention’ as Trafalgar with their quite frankly unbelievable polls which often showed Trump was on course for a landslide victory in the electoral college. So in 2024 it is quite interesting as the above tweet notes that this time Trafalgar have Trump barely ahead in the swing states. In Trafalagar’s defence their polls this time aren’t as out of line with other…
I admire Donald Trump Jr because it is some achievement by him to be the worst human being in history called Donald Trump. I think is further proof that Team Trump do not know how to combat Team Harris and Walz. TSE
It appears we have at least one debate scheduled for September and potentially three, as we saw in June debates can matter. If Trump performs like he did during last night’s press conference then Harris should be seen as the winner. I was reminded how poorly Harris performed in the 2020 Democratic Party debates and with the Insurrectionist-in-Chief going in with low expectations it may be that if he doesn’t soil himself on stage during the debates he might be…
I find this kind of polling fascinating, I think it is down Dems worried about Trump winning. TSE
I still think Kemi Badenoch is the one to lay in this market it is quite interesting that the market has switched sharply since yesterday in the aftermath of Robert Jenrick’s comments about Allahu Akbar, even though his context made the comments less inflammatory and less stupid than originally implied. Whilst both Jenrick and Badenoch do well with Tory members it is Tory MPs who shortlist the final two, I can see a pathway that sees Tom Tugendhat and James…
Crossover happened overnight and it was inevitable wasn’t it? Every day gives us polling showing Harris is on course for victory. The two most striking polls yesterday were the ones in the tweet above and the poll which showed Harris leading Trump by 1% in the Rust Belt, the previous poll had Trump 5% ahead. All those hypothetical polls before Biden’s decision to stand down saying Biden was the only Dem who could beat Trump is a reminder that multi…