On Friday I pointed out that Starmer’s ratings were improving (and Farage’s ratings fell) and it is no surprise to see Labour’s ratings improve whilst Reform’s fall. I am keen on this type of polling because it gives an indication what level of tactical voting we might see against the parties. Normally I would expect Labour to have a substantial edge on this but based on this Labour might not have much advantage over Reform but the caveat is that…
Assuming the free and fair elections are held in 2028 then the longer Trump’s tariffs are in place then the bigger the Republican Party defeat. Last year I regularly posted on PB that the economic polling would presage a Trump victory, particularly on the cost of living issue Trump’s tariffs will push up prices to a rather high level and that will bugger up the Republican Party (as will the carnage on the stock market.) In the way Boris Johnson…
The British constitution, much like a badly organised school sports day, has always valued tradition over efficiency. And among the most venerable traditions of our great nation is the appointment of people to the House of Lords not because they have led with honour, wisdom, or humility—but because, well, someone has to keep the red benches warm. Enter Amanda Spielman. Now, before the mob gathers outside Westminster with pitchforks and strongly worded tweets, let’s get one thing clear: this isn’t…
What is leadership? A good case could be made that the key to leadership is understanding what is wrong and taking action to put it right. This, however, requires the leader in question to admit they have done something wrong and therefore that there is a problem that needs fixing. On this basis, possibly the most inept leader in Britain in the last 100 years would be Amanda Spielman. Let us consider what she has done wrong in an extremely…
When Liz Truss soiled the bed and spooked the financial markets during her fugacious tenure as Prime Minister the men in grey suits intervened to end her premiership which reflects well on the Tory that they acted swiftly, after a fashion. America has some options to oust an America Liz Truss such as impeachment or the Twenty-fifth Amendment but that requires a sufficient number of Republican Party members of Congress or the cabinet to grow a spine but that isn’t…
In recent years the trend has been for incumbent governments to lose elections in part because of the cost of living crises and it is possible the current Labour government will join that list. I find this polling from Ipsos interesting, it might give Labour some mitigation but I suspect the electorate might not blame the government but they want the government to help mitigate these increases, and when the government doesn’t then the government gets blamed. TSE
I really have to question Reform’s professionalism, I understand that local election administrative screw ups happen for all parties but who in their right mind thought it was a good idea to use a Jimmy Savile’s slogan for Reform’s campaign? Why did nobody veto it? If Nigel Farage wants to become Prime Minister he needs to avoid screw ups like this? Has Alan Partridge started working for Reform? I had to check this wasn’t some elaborate April Fools’ Day hoax…
After watching Liverpool defeat Everton last night I turned to my phone and saw it was pinging like mad due to Donald Trump’s tariff plans and this polling is actually good for Labour in some respects because success equals performance minus anticipation. I don’t think the British public, like Donald Trump, do not realise how disruptive last night’s announcements would be to the world economy. TSE