politicalbetting.com

The final two are announced at 3.30pm and punters say it won’t be Jenrick. TSE

The voters aren’t enamoured with either major party at the moment. With potentially 57 months until the election only an idiot would predict the outcome of the next general election now, only the heir to the throne of the kingdom of idiots would confidently predict the outcome of the next general election now. TSE

Laying the favourite is usually a good strategy (which is a strategy I used with Kemi Badenoch shortly after the general election) thankfully I backed her last week when her price cratered and also backed Cleverly at 7s last month. Robert Jenrick to not make the final two is a strong possibility, almost feels inevitable now. TSE

You could change ‘state’ to ‘stasis’ in the title, and you wouldn’t be far wrong: hardly any movement since last week, which is exactly how I started off last week’s comments. So, what movement has there been? In national polling, Harris has a slight edge, but there’s been a small shift towards Trump. Harris is clearly favourite to win the popular vote, but that of course isn’t what counts.In the Electoral College, 538 has moved North Carolina from Trump to…

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Today sees Tory MPs voting in the third round of the Tory leadership contest and James Cleverly has the momentum, the endorsement of Mel Stride should ensure Tugendhat goes out today and tomorrow sees the end of Badenoch. TSE

This is quite the turn up, I wasn’t expecting this but it is good news for those who followed my tip on Cleverly to win this at 7s. TSE

With Tory MPs voting tomorrow and Wednesday in the leadership election I think a 10% return in two days on Jenrick may appeal to some but I think if Jenrick tries to engineer it that Tugendhat is his opponent then that 12/1 is stonking value with Ladbrokes. TSE

We might soon see a Cleverly/Jenrick crossover. TSE