politicalbetting.com

It is often said televised political debates do not effect elections but last month’s debate absolutely upended that axiom and I wonder if another debate could be another gamechanger. The prosecutor versus the serial criminal would be pure box office and it could be political theatre like we’ve never seen before. If the self confessed pussy grabber and Insurrection-in-Chief ducks out of any debates with Harris then that should lead to a boost for Harris in the polls. As an…

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Michelle Obama backers please explain yourself! Because for those of us laying her it feels like we’re taking candy from a baby. TSE

After Joe Biden’s announcement retirement I think the election now becomes a de facto referendum on Donald Trump and what his second term would entail. That has the potential to be a game changer, particularly if Harris wins the nomination as expected as the election will the prosecutor versus the criminal. TSE

Oh boy, this is going to be fun for those of us betting on the US presidential betting markets. I cannot see an endorsement for Kamala Harris in this statement. Biden endorses Harris TSE

Because the Tories for the foreseeable future are set to resemble a clown show I expect most of Sir Keir Starmer’s problems this parliament to come from his left flank. One issue will be one of George Osborne’s many popular policies, the two children cap on child benefit. There are already four amendments planned for the King’s Speech votes to remove the cap but as the YouGov polling shows there’s real support even with Labour voters for keeping the cap….

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Could an alliance between Jenrick and Braverman seal the leadership for one of them? I’ve been saying for a while that Suella Braverman is a clear lay in this market and it appears a growing number of Tory MPs agree with that assessment. The only question is will be a help or hindrance to Robert Jenrick to have the backing of Suella Braverman? I suspect it will be a hindrance with Tory MPs who participate in the first stage of…

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TSE

This polling confirms my theory that Rishi Sunak erred in holding a July election, had he waited until the autumn then Nigel Farage would have focussed his time and energies on being Donald Trump’s personal proctologist rather than focussing on the UK general election. Reform supporters must be toasting Sunak’s timing with a glass or two of Bucks Fizz. This will be the stat that will haunts Sunak. Nigel Farage’s entry into the campaign helped solidify the voting intentions of…

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