Rutherglen: SLAB can surely win this one back?
How the Scotland-only polls have been moving On the Smarkets exchange punters have a SLAB gain as an 87% chance. It is hard to disagree. SLAB is my shorthand for Scottish Labour. Mike Smithson
It’ll be hard for Sunak to hang on unless this changes
We need to remind ourselves that the general election is getting closer by the day and the amount of time that Sunak has to play with is getting smaller. The rate rises are going to hit a huge proportion of the population and many families will likely feel poorer as a result. It almost goes without saying that the incumbent government looks set to get a lot of the blame and that can only benefit LAB and the LDs. My…
Two thirds of CON members don’t think there’s a climate emergency
Is Sunak paying more attention to them than the scientists? I found this latest CONHome survey quite shocking and helps to explain Sunak’s equivocal position on green issues and global warming. But I’d suggest that if he wants to be in Number 10 after the election he has to ignore the views of party members and be much more resolute. In this instance, party members are broadly irrelevant but that is a hard position for the PM to take. These…
Can anything turn the tide for the Tories?
Thanks to David Cowling and Keiran Pedley for this – the data showing minuscule changes in the voting intention numbers so far this year. LAB has a lead of about 20% and is hanging onto it. This has meant that there has been very little to analyse and as each month goes the chances of a LAB majority government look even stronger. The biggest political loser here, I would suggest, is Sunak who not only has struggled with his party…
Trump indictment has little impact on the WH2024 betting
But it is surely going to have a huge impact on the campaign. As to the political impact these are a couple of reactions. “Politically, this indictment will be a challenge for Republicans for the next 460 days leading up the election. Instead of a laser focus on Biden’s perceived shortcomings, GOP lawmakers will be asked over and over again about the former president’s behavior on Jan. 6 and the efforts to stop the certification of the 2020 presidential election,…
It has happened at last – Trump indicted
A LAB gain opens as 90% favourite in the Rutherglen by-election
The big political story this afternoon is that the SNP MP, Margeret Ferrier, has lost her seat following a successful recall petition. This means a by-election in what was an SNP gain from LAB at GE2019. Given the current position of both parties then it is little wonder that LAB is such a hot favourite. The outcome will be a good indicator of how Scottish LAB is likely to perform against the SNP in Scotland at the general election. Starmer’s…
Has Sunak been too influenced by Uxbridge?
Of the three by-elections that the Tories were defending last Thursday Uxbridge seemed to be the most challenging for the Tories. Yet the party ended up with a very narrow hold after a skilled campaign linked to the planned extension of ULEZ in the outer London boroughs. In many ways the Tory defence was a classic LD by-election approach. Find an issue and then hammer it out like crazy and it certainly helped get the Tory vote out. Fortunately for…