A new dawn has broken has it not?
It is astonishing to think that as we approach the tenth anniversary of when the wise Scots rejected secession and division we have the first proper* YouGov poll since before the referendum to show Labour ahead of the SNP in Westminster voting intentions.
Labour used to dominate Scottish politics like a dominatrix whose client didn’t have a safe word and I still maintain the most astonishing election result this century in the UK was in 2015 when Labour went from 41 MPs in Scotland to 1 MP in Scotland.
Last week I wrote about the Labour vote becoming rather efficient and a good election night in Scotland will help with that, it is a good poll for the Lib Dems as it looks like they could become the third party at Westminster will those attendant benefits.
If there was more liquidity in this market I’d be backing the Lib Dems in this market because the SNP ceiling is 57 seats and on a very good night the Lib Dem ceiling could be much higher.
TSE
*There was a YouGov poll in October 2023 which had Labour ahead ‘but the voting intention results used slightly different wording and did not include YouGov’s standard turnout weighting and so should not be directly tracked to other YouGov voting intention figures as they are not identical. Instead, they should be tracked to other SCOOP voting intention polls conducted by the Scottish Election Study…’