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Not a lot of movement from last week, but what there is has generally been in Trump’s favour. The debate might move the needle a bit more noticeably, but in what direction. Changes from last week:All four national polling figures move slightly towards Trump: 1.0% for Nate Silver, 0.5% for 538, 0.4% for RCP, and 0.2% for Princeton’s meta-margin. In the Electoral College, 538 has Arizona moving from Harris to Trump, but still has Harris winning overall. RCP has Nevada…

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With round two tomorrow I wonder if this polling from Savanta might sway Tory MPs. I think this is good news for James Cleverly but we shall see. TSE

I know I am the last man on the planet to criticise another person’s approach to relationships but I have been giggling like an idiot at Jeremy Corbyn’s approach to relationships. When your partner complains about a lack of social activities in your relationship, taking her to see the tomb of Karl Marx isn’t going to keep her happy. As for taking her to France and taking instant macaroni and other processed foods is again a courageous strategy. Perhaps this…

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For over a week Donald Trump has been the favourite on Betfair and with the forthcoming debate on Tuesday evening (American time) might change that. Normally debates don’t matter but Joe Biden’s disastrous performance in June saw a massive change on Betfair and saw Biden eventually quit the race. In 2020 (in both the primary and the Vice Presidential) debates Kamala Harris wasn’t that impressive considering she is a lawyer and prosecutor but if Trump puts in a performance like…

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In today’s The Times supporters of Kemi Badenoch are whining that Tory MPs are voting tactically In today’s The Times supporters of Kemi Badenoch are whining that Tory MPs are voting tactically Supporters of Kemi Badenoch fear that she is the victim of a “dirty tricks” campaign designed to push her out of the Tory leadership race. Champions of the housing, communities and local government shadow secretary are privately questioning the results of the first round of the contest, which…

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Ladbrokes have bets on Nigel Farage, to be honest none of them very attractive, sadly there’s no market on Farage becoming Donald Trump’s personal proctologist in the next year or going back on I’m A Celebrity to eat a kangaroo’s bung hole. TSE

A piece earlier this week in The Hill by Merrill Matthews made for interesting reading. In a nutshell, Dems are polling really well in key swing states when it comes to the Senate races. And yet when it comes to Trump vs Harris it is basically neck and neck in these states. Here are the respective RCP averages: For Senate: Arizona – Gallego (Dem): +7.3 Nevada – Rosen (Dem): +10.7 Michigan – Slotkin (Dem): +4.8 Penn – Casey (Dem): +3.0…

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William Hill have a market up on whether Starmer will be PM at the next election. You’re potentially tying your money up for nearly five years if you think he will for a tiday 25% return. If you think he won’t, then better proxy bets could be available on say the next leader markets. As Jeremy Corbyn (and to a lesser Ed Miliband) showed it is very difficult to shift a sitting Labour leader. Labour do not appear to have…

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