This polling is unsurprising because height, like skin colour, is one of those immutable characteristics but I don’t think it will cause Angela Rayner any problems in the short term. Finally we do have a betting market on Angela Rayner’s future. I don’t think is any value in backing No and there may well be a smidgen of value in backing Yes particularly if we have a summer election, a near 14% return in a few week looks attractive from…
Next week could be very exciting With a vote of confidence set for both Humza Yousaf and the SNP government at Holyrood if the rumours at Westminster are true then next week could be the antithesis of boring. I suspect the rumours will prove to be inaccurate given they were started by Nadine Dorries yesterday and as the Guardian observes Yet the likelihood of Sunak firing the starting gun on a general election campaign on Monday, which would mean voters…
It speaks volumes to Sir Keir Starmer’s brilliance that the betting markets are offering odds on Sir Keir doing better than Sir Tony Blair in 1997, this is what winning the argument looks like. As for this market I think it is poor value (particularly as they do not offer the other side of the bet.) As we get closer to the election I suspect we will find better value proxy bets if you expect Starmer to eclipse Blair. TSE
As I thought this morning, Humza Yousaf’s strategy to abrogate the Bute House Agreement would be as successful a strategy as Emperor Palpatine decision to allow the Rebel Alliance to know the location of the second Death Star. I always advise people to act modest and magnanimous at all times, acting arrogantly has a nasty habit of coming back and biting your in the nether regions because hubris and karma are such bitches. The way Humza Yousaf acted when Ash…
It’s been an exciting morning in Scotland with the First Minister abrogating the Bute House Agreement with the Scottish Greens. As noted in the Tweets above the Greens are very unhappy with this turn of events which explains why Douglas Ross has tabled a vote of no confidence, it is clear never annoy the Scottish Greens. Even if Yousaf wins the vote he will struggle to pass things like budgets, it is clear he is being advised the experts who…
I wonder if this attempt to belittle Rishi Sunak will backfire with below average height men. I know Angela Rayner would have been angry if Oliver Dowden had made a crack about her appearance. That said Dowden did come up with a great gag at Rayner’s expense which shows how vulnerable she is. TSE
You didn’t have to be the world’s greatest political strategist to know once SCOTUS overturned Roe v. Wade abortion would play a key role in the 2024 presidential election, Biden’s strategy of rightly connecting Trump to the overturning Roe v. Wade is causing Trump and other GOPers such as Kari Lake problems, who are having to repeatedly flip flop to appease the GOP base and floating voters with different rhetoric. I expect this will drive up turn out in November…
If the flights take place that YouGov polling shows it will help the Tories in the poll as much as March’s budget did. I also expect the boat crossings to not decrease when the flights start. TSE