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Yesterday I said there was a chance that Nigel Farage could soon replace Kemi Badenoch as the favourite to be our next Prime Minister and lo and behold it has happened within twenty-four hours. Like those punters who backed Michelle Obama to be the 2024 Democratic Party nominee and/or the winner of the 2024 presidential election I just don’t understand their logic although I am more than happy to take their money. If you are backing Farage in this market…

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My favourite line(s) are the ones with Baker Street on them because I love Sherlock Holmes. TSE

It is quite something that a party with a mere five MPs and their leader soon could be favourite to be the next Prime Minister. My view is Farage is a lay in this market because if it looks like Labour are going to be eclipsed by Reform (and potentially the Tories) then Labour will look at replacing Starmer before the next election (or Starmer voluntarily stands down.) So the value might be with the likes of Wes Streeting and…

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The one thing I find amusing is that people on social media and elsewhere are stridently predicting the outcome of the next general election some four and a half years away. Governments that become rather unpopular in the early part of the parliament can go on and win the general election, as I allude to in the headline Thatcher’s first term saw her party slip to third place in the polls in her first term then won a landslide at…

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Like the Brexit referendum there’s a plethora of evidence that voters regret how they voted in the AV referendum. Like Brexit I expect the gap to get wider as the reality of decision confronts voters. Winning a majority of 174 on a vote share of 33.7%, FPTP seems iniquitous. It isn’t out of the realms of the possibility that Labour wins an even bigger majority at the next election with a lower share of the vore whilst the Tories and…

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I suspect if Nigel Farage intends to remain Donald Trump’s personal proctologist then his and Reform’s ratings will take a hit. TSE

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Prior to the general election I said many times one of the reasons I expected the Tories to get absolutely shellacked was their handling of the cost of living crisis. Labour have four and a half years to turn things around, if they do not then I would expect them to get similarly shellacked. TSE