politicalbetting.com

Longstanding readers of PB know why both Mike Smithson and myself rank the the Ipsos leader ratings so highly and these findings are ominous for Sunak as Alastair Meeks observes. If Sunak was ousted before the next election then I would expect it to be after next May’s locals if the results are much worse than expected for a government that expects to be re-elected a year later. The possibility of three successive mandateless Prime Ministers in one parliament seems…

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Can the Tories risk having him as General Election leader?

This is the first mention of New Hampshire on a PB thread ahead of the 2024 American presidential election. New Hampshire is always seen as being important because for several decades it has been the first State to hold its Primary. The Iowa, caucuses generally kick off the presidential election but this is not a primary in the way that New Hampshire. Rather lowa has a series of Precinct level meetings throughout the state at which voters give their view…

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The successful CON defence of Uxbridge on June 23rd is being used by many to raise doubts about current polling and whether the very large LAB leads would actually be there at a general election. All sorts of different explanations have been put forward particularly on the political impact of ULEZ. It only struck me today whilst looking to the October 19th by-elections that there is another more obvious explanation. Like on June 23rd on October 19th LAB is looking…

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I cannot recall a Westminster by-election where the betting has been as tight as we’re seeing in Mid Bedfordshire which takes place in four weeks time. The campaign has been going on a long time. It was in early June that Nadine Dorries announced that she was quitting but only this month did make that official The chart shows what’s happened in the betting on the by-election with Smarkets and as can be seen LAB remains the favourite but only…

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This would carry bit more force if these moves had actually been proposed which they haven’t. The Tories have just made this up to make a point. To claim they are stopping something that was never on the table is dishonest. I suppose this is what happens when a PM finds himself 20% behind in the polls. Mike Smithson

The return of 20% deficits Over the past week also we have seen some fairly poor polls for the Conservatives. Quite why this is the case is hard to fathom but as each month goes by we are closer to the general election whenever Sunak decides to call it. The governing party increasingly looks very tired and there is a lack of confidence in its communications. If you ask most MPs of all the parties there’s a fairly clear view…

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Given how far behind the Tories are in the polls there is some sense in Sunak’s announcement that he intends to scrap many of the key environmental targets that have been settled policy for several years. Firstly he gets a lot of public attention as we see from today’s front pages. Secondly what he’s putting forward is quite novel and extremely controversial. There’s already been a fair amount of criticism from Boris Johnson and team who were responsible for the…

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