Wise men vote Labour, donkeys & sheep vote Reform
TSE
The 2025 chutzpah award goes to Marco Longhi
Speaking to a former Labour SPAD earlier on this month they said to me every time a former Tory MP defects to Reform it increases the chances of Labour retaining power at the next election. Reform’s schtick is that it is the brand new thing to overturn the uniparty orthodoxy but the more they look like a retirement home for failed Tories then that message becomes less effective. Marco Longhi would like you to forget he was a Tory MP…
The year according to YouGov
TSE
Will this bug John Swinney and the SNP until election day?
TSE
They used to weigh Labour votes in Wales
Yesterday saw a YouGov poll published a Wales only poll which is utterly staggering, we should be prepared for the possibility of one of the Conservatives or Labour could finish fifth or lower in next year’s Senedd election, it would make a mockery of Kemi Badenoch’s improved ratings. Given Labour’s historic strength in Wales I am not sure there are the words to describe if that result became a reality. There’s very few betting markets on next year’s Senedd elections…
Even Reform voters support rejoining Erasmus
Little by little Brexit is being undone. TSE
A little bit of history repeating?
Every passing day confirms that Kamala Harris would have been a better president than Donald Trump but that doesn’t mean she should try and run in 2028. In many ways she was a poor candidate which I expect will be exposed in the primaries in 2028. You can back Kamala Harris at 40/1 on Ladbrokes to be the next president and at 15.5 on Betifair to be the nominee, neither of those feel attractive even as trading bets, perhaps the…
Starmer once again displays his lawyerly brilliance
One of the reasons I have been laying Andy Burnham as next Prime Minister is the logistics of him becoming an MP. Firstly I thought if there were to be a by-election engineered to get Burnham back into parliament then Starmer has the power to ensure an all-women shortlist. Secondly any by-election which could be described as the opportunity to choose the next Prime Minister could turn into an uttter poopshow for Labour, even before the current polling environment. I…