politicalbetting.com

This polling by the British Polling Council registered pollster Stack Data Strategy is consistent with other public polling which, if there were an election tomorrow, the Tories would be eradicated from the face of the earth like Carthage during The Third Punic War. The problem for Kemi Badenoch is that private polling makes Tory MPs more antsy, The Telegraph notes The findings are being circulated within the Conservative Research Department inside Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ), The Telegraph understands, and have…

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TSE

I find polling like this fascinating and allows explains why voters don’t always make rational decisions. TSE

One of the reasons I have backed Ron DeSantis is that if the Trump presidency turns into a bit of a disaster (well more of a disaster than it currently is) then that damages the likes of J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio. Being a relative ‘clean skin’ would be an advantage for the Governor of Florida. TSE

I am coming to the conclusion that Clive Lewis is not a fan of Wes Streeting, they once had an infamous Twitter spat. There are two things I am watching at the moment, if Andy Burnham repudiates this talk, and if Clive Lewis does trigger a by-election, will Sir Keir Starmer ensure the candidate for the by-election is from an all women shortlist. TSE

I look at a potential by-election in Norwich South and I cannot help think any by-election would be difficult for Labour to hold. They could be pincered senseless by the Greens on their left flank and Reform on their right flank. As we saw in Caerphilly a left wing party other than Labour could be the default stop Reform party, I cannot see Andy Burnham risking his political future on such a risky by-election. Such a by-election would be less…

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UK finances are in a mess. Traditionally, the debate has been between the right, which favours a small-state but low-tax model like the US, and the left, which favours a Scandi-style high-tax but high level of services model. It feels like we are falling between 2 stools with high taxes and poor public services. Some numbers from the ONS (September 2025): All chancellors have their own special rules to pretend they have the finances under control. Reeves has clearly lost…

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America had some important elections earlier on this month and people have looked at the underlying numbers and one thing stands out, Hispanics swinging against the Republican party, given how Trump’s ICE have been behaving this is no surprise. When looking at next year’s mid-terms it will be worth looking at the demographics and where there’s a lot of Hispanics then Republican party will do worse. TSE