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Category: Betting

Victory begets victory?

Victory begets victory?

If Starmer looks like a winner and the next general election result seems a foregone conclusion then there may well be complacency which could lower turnout but I expect that’s a Tory hope, my expectation is that there are enough voters who would crawl over broken glass to vote the Tories out. TSE

An update on the Trump crime family

An update on the Trump crime family

I think this judgment is what will hurt Donald Trump a lot personally, being financially castrated. Coupled with his other legal problems it may solidify his support with the insurrectionist MAGA mob it will repel independents and that’s what will hurt him politiically. Hurrah for the legal system that will come for you whether you are a pleb or President. TSE

Analysing yesterday’s by-elections

Analysing yesterday’s by-elections

There have been 21 by elections so far this parliament. What prospects do the results show for the government at the next general election? Let’s start by leaving aside a) the two SNP defences, as neither involved the Conservatives as the main challenging party, and b) Southend West, due to the special circumstances in which no major party challenged the defending Conservatives. This leaves us with 18 contests. The swing from Conservatives to the main challenger (Labour in 14, Liberal…

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Sir Graham Brady’s postie may get a hernia in the next few days

Sir Graham Brady’s postie may get a hernia in the next few days

What is most striking is that three out of four worst Tory by election defeats to Labour since 1945 have come in the last year under Sunak’s leadership, at some point Tory MPs will be thinking even a tub of lard, a lettuce, or Liz Truss would do a better job than Sunak. I suspect a significant body of Tory MPs will think the way to salvation is chasing the 13% of Reform voters which will be a mistake. The…

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Beware the Bookie rules before betting on a GE2024 overall majority

Beware the Bookie rules before betting on a GE2024 overall majority

To illsustrate this thread I am showing how Snarkets define an overall maajority in its GE24 market, As can be seen LAB majority punters will only end up on the winning side if the party chalks up 326 seats which is 124 than was achived at GE2019. It is quite likely that Starmer will get what effectively is a majority but which does not meet the bookie definition. The bookie rules do not take into account factors like Sinn Fein…

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Being told that the diagnosis is dementia

Being told that the diagnosis is dementia

On Monday I had an appointment at the local NHS memory clinic to hear the results of a series of tests that had been carried out on me. The news was as bad as I had feared and was told that I have had dementia. This is a very hard thing to be aware of and I am determined to make the best of what time I have left. I was very impressed by the manner of the person who…

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Not the news Rishi wanted on double by-election day

Not the news Rishi wanted on double by-election day

As voters in Kingswood and Wellingborough go out today to vote if this MRP is anywhere near accurate then Labour are going to win these by-elections handsomely. Over on Betfair there is a market on how many seats the Tories will lose, the value is, apart from laying the Tories losing more than 400 seats which is an impossibility considering they only won 365 seats at the last election, could be backing the Tories to lose in the 250-299 and…

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