What shall we read into this?
The first meeting of the invoking the 25th Amendment committee? TSE
Once again Reform voters show they are massive outliers
Nigel Farage is very astute in having nothing to do with people who were in the BNP and pro Tommy Robinson.c Farage knows if his party becomes associated with street violence then his polling will crater so this polling intrigues me. On so many issues, such as Ukraine and Donald Trump Reform voters aren’t really in line with the rest of the country and this poll is another example of that but it could harm Farage if he has to…
The downfall of Japan
Today is the eightieth anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima and there’s plenty of discussion of whether the bombings were justified. For me this is the perfect of example of life giving not good or bad options but least worst options. Harry Truman who I consider a good man was faced with a difficult decision. Operation Downfall, the plan to invade Japan, would have seen a much bigger seaborne operation than D-Day which remains to this day the largest seaborne…
Happy 100th birthday to the most favourable party in Wales
Like the Welsh rugby union team the fortunes of Welsh Labour are going sub-optimally and it is possible that at next year’s Senedd election Labour finish third which would be quite revelation in a part of Britain where the old joke was that they didn’t count Labour votes but weighed them. Back in the first devolved elections in 1999 in combined vote shares Plaid Cymru did better than the SNP but the SNP took power at Holyrood over 18 years…
The odds tumble on my 100/1 tip
A few weeks ago I tipped Jeremy Corbyn or Zarah Sultana to become Prime Minister before 2030 at odds of 100/1 with Ladbrokes. I don’t expect either to become PM before 2030 (odds fallings from 100/1 to 50/1 means something has gone from being extremely unlikely to very unlikely) but I’d expect some polls in the next few months showing their party doing well which would impact their odds so I saw it as a decent trading bet. I still…
Kemi Badenoch is taking my advice
Based on current polling the the future for the Tory party is as rosy as it was for Japan on the evening of the 5th of August 1945. Relentless optimist that I am I do think there is an opportunity for the Tory party by portraying itself as the party of fiscal discipline in contrast to Labour and Reform but I have said in the past the way to achieve that ia to repudiate Liz Truss in a way the…
A second referendum, is this how Starmer wins a second term?
Brexit isn’t going well and this poll is another example of the public’s dissatisfaction with it. I am quite surprised that a majority want a second referendum within the next five years (when you exclude don’t knows.) If Labour are still struggling in the polls in the run up to the 2029 general election a second referendum might be Labour’s hail Mary move. If you don’t mind tying up your money for five years then you might want to take…
Could Canada join the EU?
I hope a bookie puts up a market on Canada joining the EU (or at least opening talks about joining the EU.). I love Canadian politics, this year was really profitable for me, because I tipped Pierre Poilievre to lose his seat at 14/1. TSE