It’s not going terribly well for Sir Keir Starmer KC as Prime Minister and whilst I think the recent revelations about Lord Alli’s donations by the next general election will cost Labour as much the Ecclestone scandal did at the 2001 general election it is worth pondering who might succeed Sir Keir if he were to fall under the metaphorical bus or stand down quicker than anticipated. I think the value might be Ed Miliband at 100/1 as next Labour…
With the new Labour government led by Starmer proving to be the biggest disappointment since the Rings of Power there is time for Labour to recover by the time of the next UK general election there may not be enough for Labour to recover in Scotland by the time of the Holyrood election in 2026. I was expecting the SNP lose power at Holyrood in 2026 because of their general performance in the eyes of voters (plus they’d have been…
If I were on Team Harris this polling would worry me greatly as the healthy lead she had after becoming the nominee has been wiped out. My expectation has been if Harris wins then she gets her voters out to vote but if her party is less enthusiastic about voting than the Republican then this is unalloyed good news for Trump. TSE
The one positive for Labour is that we’re not even three months in to a sixty month parliament. I said recently I think Starmer is following the Thatcher/Cameron playbook of getting the difficult decisions out of the way early in the parliament and reaping the rewards later. I wonder if we will end up seeing the changes to the winter fuel allowance the same we do with Thatcher/Cameron governments increase of VAT, the former’s received real vitriol at the time…
As gaffes go this is pretty funny and will see the urine extracted from Starmer (like the Tories have done with their Tweet) but it won’t shift any votes like the gaffe the Tory Party made when they made Liz Truss Prime Minister. TSE
It is easy to take democracy for granted. In July, the UK had an election. People voted in a free and fair manner, the votes were counted within 12 hours, and the sitting prime minister gave up power and departed the next day. Many countries are not so lucky. According to Freedom House, over a quarter of the World’s countries are classified as “Not Free” while another sizeable chunk are only “Partly Free”. While even the most successful democratic leaders…
Slight – very slight – movements to Harris at national level for everyone, but it’s still finely balanced. PEC has moved enough to make Harris a slight favourite. For the Senate, the Republicans are still favoured, although the Morning Consult poll (Sep 9-18) putting Allred ahead of Cruz by 1 moves TX into tied territory for both 538 and electoral-vote. RCP have yet to add that poll to their figures. James Doyle
There was some slight movement away from Jenrick over the weekend following the revelations about one of his donors but he has largely recovered over on Betfair. If you’re not mentally prepared for Robert Jenrick as Tory leader then you should be. TSE