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I like looking at the gender splits in voting intentions because sometimes they give an insight that allows you to make a decent profit on the betting markets. In the run up to the Scottish independence referendum Alex Salmond and Scottish independence whilst popular in absolute terms there was often a gender gap which saw men more supportive of Salmond and Scottish independence whereas women weren’t. There are other examples which some have put down to women being more cautious…

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With the Westminster General Election upcoming next month [July], We are all wondering which seats will be close and which constituencies are foregone conclusions. Within Part 1, I will analyse and predict the final standings for the following areas : Belfast South, Belfast West, East Derry / Londonderry, Foyle, Mid Ulster, Newry & Armagh, North Antrim, Upper Bann & West Tyrone. Belfast South : Kate Nicholl [Alliance] is one of the most interesting candidates in this election. The former Lord Mayor is highly popular and…

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Think of Scotland, and places like Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk or East Renfrewshire which have swung massively from LD to SNP then SNP to Con all in the space of a few years or East Renfrewshire which has got Lab to SNP then SNP to Con then back to SNP. The Red Wall is likely to see the swings of 2019 reversed on a grand scale. With an uncertain world things can become worse if the appeasers/Russian shills sell out Ukraine I can…

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Mark Pack has analysed how many timesthe Tories have polled less than 20% per calendar year. One caveat is that we now have many more polls than before except during the 2010-15 parliament where the daily YouGov skewed things but the chart is very grim for the Blue Team. The last time the Tories were removed from office sub 20% polls were rare and that’s when a lot of pollsters have issues get representative samples which ended up being favourable…

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What unites: At first glance, not much. But my contention is that if you dig a little deeper they are all linked by excessive commodification as a result of neo-liberal policies pursued at least since Reagan and Thatcher. The result of these neo-liberal policies? An inability to live well and prosper even in the midst of national and global economies that are richer than ever. We can learn from each of these groups: 1. Reform voters: some at least recognise…

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I think Lord Mandelson isn’t being very subtle here. The last thing Labour needs is the voters thinking the election landslide is in the bag and decide they don’t have to vote or that they are safe to vote Lib Dem/Reform/SNP/Greens etc without risking the Labour landslide. My advice to Labour is to not panic if the polls tighten over the next 10 days as it might get those thinking for other parties to back Labour as the overwhelming narrative…

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With the bettinggate story getting worse the snippet highlighted in that story has real betting implications. Over on Betfair Labour, at 1.52, are the favourites to win RIchmond & Northallerton whilst with Ladbrokes they are 2/1. Last night I said the polls this close out were pointing to a truly crushing defeat, Sunak losing his seat would confirm that. The sad thing for the Tories are that these are such avoidable mistakes who could have predicted using insider information would…

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Whilst election day is twelve days away what often isn’t appreciated enough that right now millions of voters are submitting their postal and proxy votes and if the polls right now are correct then the shellacking the Tories are about to receive will be comparable to 1931 in reverse. A fun betting market would be will the number of Labour MPs elected next month will be closer to 500 than 400. TSE