It is still too close to call in my opinion. Harris needs to focus on getting the 10% of 2020 Dems who are currently planning on voting for Trump to come back to the Dems. On Betfair Harris and Trump are 52% and 46% chances of winning, my expectations in ascending order of likelihood in terms of electoral college votes TSE
Considering the rather low vote share on a very low turnout it isn’t surprising that 62% of the public do not care who wins the Tory leadership, what must worry the Tories is that over a third of people who voted Tory last month also do not care who will succeed Sunak. As a lifelong Tory I am wondering if this is how the Liberals started feeling in the early part of the twentieth century as they were eclipsed. A…
I don’t know why but I feel weirdly passionate about the pronunciation of scone. TSE
This is fascinating polling, which shows that Walz is seen as positive whereas J.D. Vance isn’t. Vance appears to be one of those weirdos who hates cats and their owners whereas Walz seems designed to appeal to ordinary Americans. The choice of running mates will not ultimately impact the election result, people vote for the top of the ticket, I’ve said this election will be decided by independents and it isn’t looking good for Trump on that front. TSE
The Sun report that because Labour have scheduled the budget for the 30th of October, just before the new Tory leader is announced on the 2nd of November some Tories are thinking about bringing forward the election of the new leader to the 26th of October to ensure the new leader can respond to the budget. It will also give the Tories some headroom to enjoy some publicity without being drowned by the US presidential election which is currently scheduled…
For me the key finding from Nate Silver’s analysis is this Harris has improved on Biden’s numbers by somewhere between 3.9 points and 8.5 points in literally every swing state — and by more than 7 points nationally. It’s a completely transformed race. But the race is still too close to call in my humble opinion. TSE
At the time there were plenty of comments criticising Sir Ed Davey’s stunts during the campaign but they certainly got him noticed. Rishi Sunak partaking in the most ignominious exit from mainland Europe since the Dieppe Raid certainly damaged him as did the betting scandal. If these two incidents didn’t happen perhaps the Tories could have pushed the Tories up to 150 seats? Sir Keir Starmer must feel a bit of a tool, given how often he mentioned he was…
If there were an election today I’d expect Donald Trump to win and the reasons in the above tweet explains why. We’re not at the point where I think Trump is value. Polls aren’t static, and with fewer than three months to election day there’s enough time for the polls to change either way and it could be utterly grim based on the Trump campaign, he’s not so much as using racist dog whistles as much as a foghorn. TSE