As we await the first result
TSE
The exit poll brings bad news for the MRPs and the SNP
I am quite surprised by the Reform seats but I did advise buying them on the spreads when they were 4 due the small downside. The Tories are pummelled but not wiped out to an extinction level event. Did the supermajority talk work? TSE
What’s new pussy cat?
As we wait for the exit poll here’s some fun polling which is cat-astrophe for dogsatpollingstations. Here’s the latest betting from Betfair, what will it look like at 10.01pm? TSE
History suggests lawyer Starmer was always going to win this election
Writing a piece about why lawyers are awesome is a piece of epic tautology but it does have important betting related implications both today and in the future. Ever since Germany surrendered in World War II every time at a UK general election when Labour or the Tories have been led by a lawyer facing a non lawyer as their opponent the lawyer has always won except when both parties were led by lawyers, further proof that Shakespeare was wrong…
Will David Cameron have a better vote share than Keir Starmer?
This general election has thrown up things that I never expected to write. On election day I wasn’t expecting to write about Labour polling below the 36.1% David Cameron’s Tories received in 2010 but this is now a real possibility as this Ipsos poll isn’t an outlier. If Rishi Sunak hadn’t run a terrible campaign we might have actually had a hung parliament. But the share of the vote doesn’t really matter, it’s all about net gains and bums on…
Election night guide
As we all await the bong at 10:00 PM, I’ve prepped up a few spreadsheets that will try and sort the wheat from the chaff. Sheet 1 This is the most important, and should collate the early results, click here At about 2:30, move onto sheet 2 The final sheet is here Right now these this has every constituency, and is the most likely to fall over. The first two sheets are attempting to do less so with a fair…
People tell pollsters duff info
If the polls are wrong I suspect this will be one of the main reasons, turnout will not match what the voters tell the pollsters on their propensity to vote. Differential turnout could be the difference between an extinction level event for the Tories and a 1997 redux. TSE
All three MRPs today bring bad news for the SNP edit – 4th MRP today does the same
All the MRPs show the Tories walloped worse than 1997. The most striking thing from the MRPs is the YouGov one showing Labour’s getting majority wider throughout the year, so much for swingback. Perhaps Rishi Sunak calling an early election was a masterstroke as the Tories might have ended up with 20 MPs in a November election if that YouGov trend continued although I think Rishi Sunak will be full of regret of how badly he has campaigned. When it…