One of the reasons I rate Ipsos is their polling goes back to the 1970s which allows to contextualise current polling. Economic optimism is the lowest in the history of Ipsos really should worry Labour, I think the poor ratings of Rachel Reeves means Labour will get a large share of the blame but the actions of the Orange one in the White House could help Labour avoid the blame for the economic mess, this time it really did start…
1. Introduction “The New Leviathans” is a book by John Gray. It is not an easy read. It is overwritten and despite its short length it is too long, taking frequent digressions: so much so in fact it may be two books mashed into one or repurposed. But it does introduce the concept of “hyperliberalism”: a theoretical framework that unites “woke” and identity politics and academic liberalism under an umbrella term and provides a history. So let’s have a look….
If you’ve been backing the Liberals/laying the Conservatives in Canada then this revelation might make you very nervous given how this polling question has predicted Brexit and Trump victories. As noted above the French whale who made over $30 million on Trump winning last November did so asking this question. In the space of a few hours we’ve gone from discussing Pierre Poilievre losing his seat to him winning the most votes, James Kanagasooriam is somebody I respect a lot…
If things turn out as the polls predict then on Monday the Canadian Liberal Party are going to experience the greatest Canadian victory since The Battle of Vimy Ridge. Based on the news reports I think there is stonking value in the 14/1 Ladbrokes are offering on Pierre Poilievre losing his seat. You can find the market here though I expect it will be another addition to my collection of excellent value losers. TSE
A little over four decades ago, a small Cambridge computer company had a big problem. Their biggest-selling product used an elderly microprocessor, just as their competitors were moving to more capable ones. However, those processors were stopgaps that would soon be overhauled. So, the company, asked, why not go for a newer generation of microprocessor? The only problem was that no suitable microprocessor existed. During a trip to a chip-design company in America, they were surprised to discover that the…
There are some PBers, who shall remain nameless, back in 2015, helped Andrea Jenkyns become a Tory MP, a decade later she is on course to become mayor of Greater Lincolnshire for Nigel Farage’s party and this is where a lot of focus will be on as it shows the direction of politics over the last decade. Ladbrokes have some markets up on the various mayoral races (including ones not in the screenshot) and based on these polls from YouGov…
These tweet shows how poorly Trump is doing in the polls, if these sort of numbers persist then assuming free and fair elections are held in 2028 then the current favourite on Betfair to win 2028 J.D. Vance will be damaged by these numbers by association. If you fancy tying up your money for nearly four years then laying Vance then this might be the strategy for you. TSE
Ladbrokes have a market up on will Reform have 10 or more MPs at the time the next election is called, the time value of money alone makes this a poor bet (and the fact the other side of the bet isn’t offered). With the Rupert Lowe legal action against Nigel Farage, Lee Anderson, and others, I wouldn’t be betting on the number of Reform MPs there will be at any point in this parliament, which has potentially over four…