A prelude to the next general election?
A fun betting market for the next general election would be the lowest winning vote share at the next election would be. TSE
A Very British Alternative: Jim Callaghan’s Victory and the Redefinition of Britain’s Future
History, as we know, tends to pivot on the smallest of decisions. One such decision came in the autumn of 1978 when Prime Minister Jim Callaghan chose not to call a general election, leading to the “Winter of Discontent” and the downfall of his Labour government. But what if Callaghan had gone to the country in October 1978, as many of his advisers urged, and secured a narrow but workable majority? Britain’s political, economic, and geopolitical trajectory could have been…
I am spotting a trend in Anglosphere elections this week
Having seen in the past John Howard lose his seat this isn’t a new experience in Australian politics but the second leader in a week associated/compared/endorsed to/by Donald Trump lose the election and their seat. I wonder if we’ll see a similar impact at the next UK general election. Being a friend of Donald might be a problem. Until a couple of months ago the Coalition led under the two-party-preferred polling. One difference between Australia and UK is that Australia…
Now the focus shifts to Australia
After Mark Carney delivered the most consequential victory in Canada since the Battle of the Plains of Abraham attention now switches to Australia. I cannot see any value in the markets being offered by William Hill. It will be interesting to see how the republican Anthony Albanese uses his expected mandate to take back control from Australia’s unelected head of state. TSE
Today’s must watch and some important stats
I am still digesting today’s results but it is clear the old political duopoly is over, from a betting perspective the next general election might be the one where UNS falls apart completely. Exciting time for punters. TSE
It’s a stunning performance by Reform
We’re just under halfway through all the councils declaring and so far it is a stunning performance by Reform. Nigel Farage must feel like Napoleon after the Battle of Austerlitz. As a Tory I went in with very low expectations for the Tories but this is much lower than my worst expectations, yesterday feels like another staging post in the Tory eclipse by Reform. I suspect Badenoch will come under more pressure than Starmer after these results. I hope Reform’s…
A reminder that getting out the vote is crucial
I’ve only just woken up so not had time to properly analyse the early results but the by-election shows why every little helps when it comes to winning. TSE
Political betting is being blamed for the Tories losing control of every council tonight
The Telegraph are reporting that The Conservatives are anticipating that they will lose control of all the councils they are defending in Thursday’s local elections. A confidential memo to Kemi Badenoch, seen by the Telegraph, predicts that the Tories will lose up to 770 seats and all the mayoral elections that are taking place. The document said that the Conservatives expect Reform UK to pick up 500 seats and win the Runcorn by-election, with the Tories slumping to third. The party puts…