New Leader Pre-election ICM Post-election ICM Uplift John Smith 1992 35 39.33 4.33 Tony Blair 1994 44.66 47.66 3 William Hague 1997 31.4 (GE result) 25 -6.4 Iain Duncan Smith 2001 29.66 29 -0.66 Michael Howard 2003 32.66 33.33 0.66 David Cameron 2005 37.33 39.33 2 Gordon Brown 2007 31 39 8 Mili-E/Mili-D 2010 ?? ?? ? What’ll be the scale of the new leader bounce? If the next election is fought on the current boundaries then the uniform swing…
Politicalbetting – August 2007 For a period back in 2007 the standard format for reporting polls on PB was to produce a series of smiling faces of the leader whose party was ahead – the number being determined by the size of the lead. In the run up to Mr. Brown becoming PM on June 27th 2007 the number of “happy Daves” began to decline and not to soon after the change-over they were replaced by “Happy Gordons”. This reached…
Could he be back in his old job by the autumn? One betting market that could soon be coming to fruition is the one on whether ex-LD Treasury Secretary, David Laws, will return to the cabinet before the end of the year. He had to stand down, of course, following allegations about his expense claims for housing costs. This has been prompted by newspaper reports that he’s now part of a group of key Clegg advisers and efforts are being…
Pollster/publication Date CON LAB LD ComRes/Independent 08/08/10 39 33 16 YouGov/Sun Times 06/08/10 42 36 13 YouGov/Sun 02/07/10 42 38 12 MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 ICM/Guardian 25/07/10 38 34 19 YouGov/Sun 21/07/10 44 35 13 ComRes/Independent 27/06/10 40 31 18 YouGov/Sunday Times 25/06/10 43 36 16 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 24/06/10 41 35 16 YouGov/Sun 24/06/10 43 34 17 Populus/Times 23/06/10 39 33 18 YouGov/Sun 23/06/10 42 34 17 Only the third non-YouGov poll in six weeks The online pollster, YouGov,…
1) Lipstick on a pig: a hard-line Conservative government with some Lib Dem detox; 2) An exceptional response to exceptional times, where getting the economy back on track is the sole priority of two right-thinking parties; 3) A true fusion of Lib Dem and Conservative aims to produce something that is better than the sum of the parts; or 4) A left-wing Conservative conspiracy with the Lib Dems against the right wing of the Conservatives? Thanks to antifrank on the…
Will this reinforce yellow support for the coalition? Both the Times and the Telegraph this morning carry news on their front pages that the coalition is to back Vince Cable’s Lib Dem proposal that university tuition fees should be replaced by what will surely become known as the graduate tax. Both papers are following up on an interview in the Sunday Telegraph at the weekend in which he was quoted as saying that the PM was “100% behind the plan”…
Henry G Manson on who will get EdB’s 2nd preferences? It’s now pretty well accepted that Jon Cruddas’ public second-preferencing for Harriet Harman during the Newsnight debate swung sufficient MPs to help her win the deputy leadership from Alan Johnson. Ed Balls has indicated he’ll be announcing who he’ll second preference for the leadership contest in early September. More than any other group of supporters in the party, his backers will move like a herd. Will Straw’s analysis today suggests…
Sky News Get ready for the politics of the spending review The main story on SkyNews this morning evokes memories of what became a defining measure by the then education secretary, Margaret Thatcher, in 1971 – a long time ago. Even those who are too young to have been about at the time must be aware of the chant from the period – “Thatcher Thatcher – Milk Snatcher” – something that came to symbolise the 70s and the 80s. Her…