What’s the best TV audience bet? Over the past 24 hours I’ve been betting quite heavily on the Bet365 market on the size of the BBC TV audience for the Royal Wedding on April 29th. The latest YouGov findings on the public’s view, featured in the chart above, suggest that the talk of massive audience might be over the top. That only 35% told the pollster that they would be watching on TV, exactly the same proportion as those saying…
Click to watch interview Is the Lamb threat pointing to greater LD assertiveness? I’ve been out all day and am only just catching up with the Norman Lamb interview on today’s Politics Show in which he threatened to resign over the NHS changes. Although he is not that well-known Lamb is a key figure within the party and as well as being an assistant whip is also a close advisor to Nick Clegg. I cannot believe that he would have…
Could this have a critical affect on turnout? It was Andrew Rawnsley in the Observer at the end of February who spotted the socio-economic splits in voting intentions on the referendum with those in the lower social groups be more likely to be NO than those in higher groupings. At the time he wrote:- “….The no campaign will probably not put it so indelicately themselves, but they are calculating that their best hope of preserving first past the post is…
Why’s there no sign of activity on the ground? We’ve been debating the AV referendum on PB for more than a year. Well finally it’s here! With less than a month to go, the sun is out and the campaign proper has started. Let’s share reports from the front. Have you made up your mind? Is the march of AV campaigners deafening? And has your passion for AV or FPTP forced you out on the street? To get the ball…
Which party’s the most to fear from AV? The chart was prepared from polling data gathered by Professor John Curtice and presented to last week’s session on the alternative vote organised by the Political Studies Association. For each election those who had voted were asked who their second preference would be if they had had a choice. What’s striking about the historical line is that 2010 was the only one of the general elections where the LD split was not…
Can the red team no longer rely on “the system”? For the last twenty years, the Conservatives have needed a greater share of the vote than Labour in order to win an overall majority. That was the case for three main reasons: a higher turnout in safe Conservative seats as against safe Labour ones, a much greater willingness for Lib Dems to tactically support Labour to keep the Tories out than the reverse, and Labour seats being on average smaller…
BBC News And could this still damage Cameron? In a dramatic development this afternoon News International has apologised to several figures whose mobile phone mail-boxes are said to have been hacked into and at the same time set up a £20m fund to deal with compensation claims. The firm is clearly hoping that this will draw a line under the affair which has continued for nearly three years since the Guardian first reported on the story. Amongst those with political…
A reminder for Monday April 18th There’s an exhibition currently going on of many of Marf’s PB cartoons at the Guildhall Gallery in the City of London. Marf herself will be there from mid-afternoon on Monday April 18th 2011 ahead of the PB party that evening at the Dirty Dicks pub opposite Liverpool Street station. Both gatherings are open to all PBers whether they are lurkers or commenters. See Marf’s works in a gallery setting AND see the faces behind…