Hope you can make the next PB gathering Thanks to Fat Steve for once again organising this. The next informal PB get-together is for the fourth time at the historic Dirty Dicks pub opposite the main entrance to Liverpool Street station. It’s on Monday – kick off is at 6pm. Earlier, at 4pm, a number of PBers are gathering at the Guildhall Gallery about ten minutes walk away where Marf, the site’s cartoonist, has an exhibition including a number of…
Do by-elections point to a less bad night on May 5th? One of the most surprising sets of data presented by Professors Rallings and Thrasher at the Political Studies Association seminar on the May 5th local elections is featured above. For a decade and more the two political scientists have produced a national equivalent vote share projection based on each set of local election results. In 2007, when most of the seats being contested this year were last up, the…
What’s behind the shift? There’s been a sharp move to NO reported from YouGov and it’s all happened in the space of four days. At the weekend the Sunday Times survey from the firm had the YES campaign with a two point leader amongst decided voters. Today’s SUN is now reporting that the latest poll, where fieldwork closed yesterday afternoon, has NO eight points ahead. This is the first time that News International’s pollster has had NO ahead when the…
Could the real argument start AFTER May 5th? With one poll after another showing the referendum race as neck and neck there becomes a real possibility that we could see the overall UK result being a YES but with England going NO. The reasons have been discussed here before. The referendum coincides with general elections to the devolved parliaments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland with turnout, perhaps into the 60s. In England there are either local council elections or,…
Will 1,000+ gains justify the poll ratings? It’s always the case ahead of the May local elections that parties seek to lower expectations in order that they can better them and so declare their performances a great success. That’s politics and we are seeing a bout of it at the moment. So it’s no wonder that Labour is trying to dampen down forecasts that the party is in for a brilliant night on May 5th. The most they’ll admit is…
Why are phone polls showing a different picture? Overnight we had what is increasingly a rare event – a Westminster voting intention poll that was carried out by telephone in this case Populus for the Times. The shares are CON 36: LAB 40: LD 11. As the former head of polling at ICM, Nick Sparrow, was observing in his April PB polling column the phone pollsters are showing something of a different picture of opinion from the online firms which…
Poll Date CON % LAB % LD % OTH Angus Reid/ 10/04/11 31 42 11 16 Angus Reid/ 20/03/11 32 41 10 17 Angus Reid/ 04/03/11 33 41 10 16 Angus Reid/ 10/02/11 34 40 11 15 Angus Reid/Sunday Express 28/02/11 32 43 11 14 Angus Reid/ 25/01/11 33 41 12 13 Angus Reid/ 06/01/11 35 40 12 15 Angus Reid/ 20/12/10 35 41 9 12 Angus Reid/ 29/11/10 35 40 13 13 Angus Reid/ 28/10/10 35 37 15 11…
Latest AV referendum polls using the question that’s on the ballot