Is attacking Dave/George going to resonate? I am told that this ad is being used in strong Labour areas, particularly in the north. To me the linking of the local elections, the referendum and using the Labour logo is quite smart and for some audiences might be quite effective. This is all part of the Mandy attack strategy that we saw last night – put the focus on Cameron/Osborne not on Clegg. We shall see if it works. UPDATE The…
What will this week’s surveys tell us There’s a poll from last week from the Canadian online firm, Angus Reid, that’s just been published and like the ICM and YouGov surveys at about the same time has the split at 58-42 to NO. The fieldwork finished last Thursday so is now quite old – but it does bear out what we saw from other firms. There has been a big shift to the NO camp. Most of the change has…
Will the new “hurt George and Dave” effort change views? My reading of the referendum battle is that the only way that YES can come back from behind is if there’s a sizeable switch of Labour voters to their side. Currently it’s broadly 50:50 which reflects the views of the parliamentary party. It really needs to be 60:40 for the effort to abandon FPTP is to be successful. Ed Miliband has hardly been conspicuous in his advocacy of the side…
UPDATED Can he make the election about “damaging Dave”? Above is the front page of tomorrow’s Indy with Peter Mandelson now adding his weight to the YES campaign. But does the “Dark Lord” have any influence any more? It’s hard to say – but Mandy always seems to make news and this, no doubt, will get lots of coverage in the morning. Mandy said: “Labour supporters need to use their noddle and ask themselves why Cameron is fighting so hard…
A guest slot by Rod Crosby Amid the knockabout fun of the AV referendum campaign I’ve noted little serious analysis of where we currently stand under FPTP, and where we might end up, depending on the outcome on 5th May. The Reactionaries among us, nominally Conservatives, simply view AV as the work of the Devil, and seem incapable of offering any reasoned argument for its rejection – nor, just as importantly, for the retention of FPTP. But is the Alternative…
Will this mayoral battle be best pointer on the night? With Jackie Ashley in the Guardian and Tim Montgomerie at ConHome both raising the prospect of 2011 general election a big question is whether such a gamble by Dave would pay off. For the only point in going to the country four years early would be to secure an overall majority so the party could rule without the need to consider the yellows. Such a battle would be on the…
Take part in this quickie survey Negative responses to the statements, when you do nothing, are as important as positive ones. Thus if you think YES will win the referendum ignore the two questions on the size of the NO margin. Please consider each point. What are your predictions for the May 5 elections. Tick each one that you think will happen Turnout in AV referendum to exceed 40% NO to win with margin of 10% plus NO to win…
And Easter greetings from Marf May’s elections are important. Not only will they decide who controls millions of pounds, they will set the tone of politics and party morale for the year ahead. They are the first real indication of how votes stack up in the Coalition era. And outside the English cities, they will establish the activist base on which the parties will fight the next general election. The elections are most important for Labour. Out of office, the…