I love studying history and past polls is a particular area that brings unbridled joy is when we are looking for evidence of swingback. Based on precedent Labour’s lead at the general election could be as low as 4% which make those people betting on no overall majority rather happy. My two key takeaways is that Starmer isn’t doing as well as Cameron & Blair, the only two people in the last forty four years to make the transition from…
I think that Labour has to look again at its messaging here on the election date. The system that was in place for all the Labour majority governments has been that it has been left to the prime minister to decide when general elections are held. Inevitably Sunak is going to hang on until he sees the polls give some indication that things might not be as bad as they appear at the moment. My guess is that he’ll wait…
Last week I advised Sunak to rule out a May election as soon as possible lest he falls into Labour’s trap and be labelled a bottler, as we can see from the above tweets he has just done that. Also he has ruled out a January 2025 election as only the heir to the throne of the kingdom of idiots would hold an election that straddled Christmas and the New Year period. The question is when in H2 of 2024…
By far the biggest political betting market is November’s White House race in the US. As can be seen Trump has lost a little of his betting appeal but he remains favourite. There is a long long way to go and the big question Is how this will look after the first phase of state contests – Iowa, New Hampshire and S Carolina. In the coming weeks, Trump has so many legal cases to contend with, and a huge part…
If a year ago you had told me in 2023 Nicola Sturgeon would resign as Scottish First Minister & SNP Leader and then her husband and later herself would be arrested regarding the SNP finances I would have chastised you for drinking too many eggnogs but that’s what happened. It was a surreal moment when a motorhome became the focus of the investigation (from Winnie Ewing to Winnebago) but the moment of her arrest was seminal. From First Minister to…
Compare the reasons with the 2005-2010 parliament
The i are reporting that After its spectacular by-election victories in October in Nadine Dorries’s former seat of Mid Beds and Chris Pincher’s former Tamworth constituency, Labour will be hopeful of overturning Bone’s Conservatives 18,540 majority. But the Reform Party is also hoping to make a statement of intent. As i reported on Monday, Reform is already posing a growing threat to the Tories in the polls. Now the party is hoping adopting Bone might give Rishi Sunak more to worry about. The 71-year-old MP…
The first event in this year’s White House Race takes place in just a fortnight when the Republican Party holds its caucuses in Iowa. This is very different from an ordinary primary because what happens is that Republican voters have to attend caucuses at the local Precinct centre in order to meet and cast their votes for the candidate they want to be selected This requires a far greater commitment from voters than just popping into a polling station and…