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Author: Mike Smithson

How will a criminal conviction impact on WH2024?

How will a criminal conviction impact on WH2024?

One of the big unknowns in WH2024 is how Trump’s chances could be affected if he gets convicted in the courts of a criminal offence. Currently there are quite a number of cases which the judicial system is bringing forward which could possibly be concluded before November when the Presidential election is due to be held. The former President’s strategy is to play for time and hope that nothing is concluded before the election date. This might be a lot…

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How many Tory by-election losses will revert back at GE2024?

How many Tory by-election losses will revert back at GE2024?

Table from Wikipedia As we all know this has been a terrible Parliament for the Conservatives in parliamentary by-elections. As well as LAB the LDs have picked a quite a few seats. But how many of the Tory losses go back to Sunak’s party at the general election? Certainly the history of recent general elections suggests that most will revert back. One factor of course is that the boundaries at the general election will be different. Also the amount of…

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Beware the Bookie rules before betting on a GE2024 overall majority

Beware the Bookie rules before betting on a GE2024 overall majority

To illsustrate this thread I am showing how Snarkets define an overall maajority in its GE24 market, As can be seen LAB majority punters will only end up on the winning side if the party chalks up 326 seats which is 124 than was achived at GE2019. It is quite likely that Starmer will get what effectively is a majority but which does not meet the bookie definition. The bookie rules do not take into account factors like Sinn Fein…

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Being told that the diagnosis is dementia

Being told that the diagnosis is dementia

On Monday I had an appointment at the local NHS memory clinic to hear the results of a series of tests that had been carried out on me. The news was as bad as I had feared and was told that I have had dementia. This is a very hard thing to be aware of and I am determined to make the best of what time I have left. I was very impressed by the manner of the person who…

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Suddenly the betting money goes on Michelle Obama

Suddenly the betting money goes on Michelle Obama

One of the big developments in the WH2024 race is the growing interest in Michelle Obama being the Democratic nominee. This has been triggered by what was always going to be an issue over Biden- he’s 82 this year and his opponents are looking for signs that he might well be suffering from dementia. This is hardly surprising given his age and I have long taken the view that re-selecting him would be a huge gamble. One of the stories…

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