But EdM’s personal ratings are worse than Clegg’s The first ICM political poll to be published for seven weeks is just out in the Guardian and puts the Lib Dems on just 12% – the lowest from the firm for fourteen years. The Tories are on 37% with Labour on 39%. This will come as a bitter blow the Clegg and his team because ICM is traditionally the pollster that has given them the highest ratings. It very much mirrors…
A guest slot by CycleFree According to the weekend’s papers, Ed Milliband is going to argue that his “Promise for Britain†means that “bankers and those on welfare need to have a sense of responsibility to their communities.†All fine – as far as it goes – but the feebleness of what is expected is striking. At a time when we are living through one of the worst crises in capitalism in decades (not yet over and which may indeed…
Why Labour should be concerned about Miliband’s numbers The declining leadership ratings for Ed Miliband have raised again the question of whether these are a better pointer to electoral outcomes than standard voting intention surveys when those sampled are asked about the party they will vote for. Exactly three months ago yesterday, on March 19th 2011, I gambled what was for me a large sum, more than half my university pension that month, on a very simple simple proposition:- We…
What’ll be the impact of events in Athens? One of the findings in the monthly MORI issues index that invariably attracts controversey is on the EU/Europe. This month there was a zero score for those making it the main issue and just 3% listed it as one of the “other issues”. How can it be, it is asked, that so few people seem to care? That’s hard to answer but even in the survey that coincided with the June 2009…
Meanwhile Cleggie’s situation improves Details of the Sunday Times YouGov poll are just out with the latest leadership ratings for Cameron/Miliband and Clegg. Here the pollster asks every week in the same standardised format whether those in the sample think that the leaders are doing well/badly. The +/- figures in the chart above shows the current splits with the change since the start of the month. As can be seen Clegg has edged back from his ultra-lows and is moving…
Is the BNP really on 9%? The latest ComRes poll for the Indy on Sunday and the Sunday Mirror is, on the face of it, bad news for Labour, okay news for the Tories but sensational for the BNP. I’ve extracted the table from the detailed data and I cannot make head nor tail of it. If you add up the reported party shares of CON 37: LAB 37: LD 11: BNP 9: SNP 5: GRN 4: PC 4: UKIP…
Should Labour not be doing better? The latest ComRes poll for the Indepedent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out, and has Labour 37% (-2), Conservative 37% (-1) and the Lib Dems on 11% again. Others are up to 15%. Ed Miliband will be worried that his personal numbers are so poor – his figures have dropped 10-points in a month, according to Politics Home. Ed Balls is little better thought of with only 10% preferring the pugilistic Shadow Chancellor…
Is the government taking on too many battles? The impending public-sector strikes announced this week add just another front to the many battles the government’s facing. Ed Miliband raised an aspect of the welfare reforms at the last PMQ’s, the proposed changes to the NHS have been mired in difficulty for months, there’ve been the academies programme and tuition fees in education, and eliminating the deficit will have implications across virtually every aspect of government activity. On top of which,…