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The Sun famously claimed it had won the election for John Major’s Tories in 1992.  Rupert Murdoch later denied that claim, telling the Leveson Inquiry that the ‘Won It’ headline had been “tasteless and wrong”, adding: “we don’t have that sort of power” (although the Mandy Rice-Davies principle applies here of course). The Sun’s 1992 claim has to be filed under ‘Unprovable’, but with the largest UK daily circulation at the time of 3.8m copies, and a relentless anti-Labour campaign…

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Introduction In my recent entry in the Measurement series, I was chastised by @Cleitophon who pointed out that he came here for “…brutal empirical analysis about the electoral landscape – not this ephemeral theory…”. It’s a fair point, and one that I share. So, what empirical analysis can my small brain bring you? Let’s try the 2024 Finnish Presidential election, the first round of which is 28 January 2024. Finland What do I know about Finland? Not a lot. I…

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One of the big questions in American politics at the moment is whether Joe Biden is going to seek a second term? Normally you would expect the winner of the presidential election four years earlier to seek to try to gain a second term but we are talking here about someone who will be 82 next November. It is said that Biden’s wife is keen that her husband does try for a second term and all the signs are that…

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Next Tuesday we have the WH2024 primary in New Hampshire which has traditionally been the first state to decide. Unlike Iowa where only the Republicans have their caucus in New Hampshire we have full primaries for both of the main parties. Only problem is that this year whatever. happens in the Democrat primary will have no impact whatsoever on who gets the nomination. Before the campaign started Biden’s party decided that the traditional order of primaries should not be followed…

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A market I would love to see is if any migrants actually get sent to Rwanda before the general election I suspect the answer would be zero. What these findings from YouGov show is that public think the policy isn’t effective nor value for money which means even if people are sent to Rwanda it might not be a vote winner. Rishi Sunak appears to have wasted an awful lot of political capital for little reward, this is the sort…

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This was a headline I never expected to write but we live in interesting but there is one constant in life, Nadine Dorries is usually wrong. I cannot see the Tories (or Labour) ever having a leader from the Lords it is just so impractical, so I consider her suggestion as someone who has never reconciled herself with the fact that Boris Johnson was ousted by Boris Johnson but I can see why Nadine Dorries thinks the Tories may want…

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