Trump moves up in the WH2024 betting after winning the GOP Iowa caucuses
Conflicts of interest
At the heart of most scandals is a conflict of interest, often more than one, which has been allowed to develop, not mitigated or managed, or simply ignored. Being able to recognise these is essential to good public administration. It is essential to good legislation (a header could be written about the policy corruption inherent in governments funding lobby groups to promote policies the government wants, then consulting with only these groups who, unsurprisingly, agree wholeheartedly with the policies suggested….
YouGov/Telegraph mega poll with forecasts for each seat predicts CON disaster
The big political news this morning is a 14k sample megapoll by YouGov for today’s Telegraph with detailed predictions for each of the seats. The outcome is terrible fo Sunak and his party. Check the details out for yourself. Mike Smithson
Can Nigel Farage make it eight in a row?
The Sunday Times are reporting Nigel Farage has given his strongest indication yet that he could stand again for parliament after a poll suggested he would comfortably win a seat previously held by Ukip. The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, the former Ukip donor, suggested that Farage would win 37 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex, beating the Tory incumbent by ten percentage points. Responding to its findings, Farage said: “I have to say to you that…
PB Predictions Competition 2024 – Entries
A total of 81 of entries were received for the PB Prediction Competition 2024 and I have included a summary of those entries below. Reflecting the prediction challenge I am struck by how quickly the news agenda shifts. Most entrants predicted the party leaders will remain unchanged but in the days since entries closed, first Davey and then Starmer have come under pressure from the PO Scandal, so who knows how safe those predictions will be. ‘Events dear boy, events!’ …
Elites
INTRODUCTION The concept of a political elite is much in vogue recently. I find it difficult to cope with the recency, because the existence of a group of people above others is older than Britain: the term “privilege” is derived from “privilegium”, a private law. The British class structure which Thatcherism was supposed to overthrow had existed for centuries, and in turn dates back to divisions between clergy, nobility, landowners, etc. We could spend a lively time talking about how…
Record low temperatures forecast for Iowa’s polling day
On Monday it is the first event of WH2024 starting as usual with the Iowa caucuses. Inevitably, the terrible weather that the state is going through will likely impact the outcome. There’ve been fierce blizzards and heavy snowfalls. Many roads have been blocked and it’s hard to see this not having an impact on the outcome. Mancy eve of campaign events have been cancelled. My guess is that unless things improve rapidly the turnout level will be hit. Caucuses require…