Christie pulls out – a boost for Haley? Just 4 days to go before the first set piece of this year’s White House when the opening salvos and first actual voting are in Iowa with its caucuses. This time there will only be a Republican Party caucus while the Democrats contest will take place in about six weeks. The Iowa caucuses are a very difficult election to assess and there have been several instances in the past of the betting…
I am glad I live in the United Kingdom where we have an orderly changes of government and no Second Amendment. TSE
Could she beat Trump in the New Hampshire primary? The only WH2024 bet I have placed has been on Nikki Haley to beat Trump in the first proper primary in New Hampshire towards the end of the month. She appears to be running the best campaign as doubts about Trump increase by the day. This latest poll is no surprise given Trump’s legal problems. One thing that might help her is that Democratic voters who are totally opposed to Trump…
Even though 2024 is likely to be the UK election year the US Presidential election is likely to be the biggest political betting event. Currently, it is looking as though it will be a repeat of WH2020 with Trump and Biden the contenders. I think both of them are far too old but I cannot see any change. If Trump was to step aside then you could envisage Biden pulling out in the spring. Mike Smithson
TSE
I dont know whether LD Leader Ed Davey is going to survive in the role till the general election but he hasn’t been helped by the recent focus on him. His position is more precarious because his ambitious Deputy Daisy Cooper is waiting in the sidelines and there must be a reasonable chance that she could be the leader at the general election. Many in the party believe that they would come out with more seats at the election under…
Thanks to Cyclefree most PBers are well aware of the industrial scale miscarriage of justice involving the Post Office and the prosecution of the subpostmasters and subpostmistresses, with the ITV series on the Post Office scandal airing this past week the scandal is entering the wider public consciousness as a few of us predicted. This has led to difficulties for Sir Ed Davey who was Post Office Minister and dealt with some of the victims who were unimpressed with his…
This is part of a series about measuring political concepts. This one is about classification of parties. Introduction In May 2022, SNP MP Mhairi Black said that the Government was “sleepwalking closer to fascism”. This engendered discussion about whether she was right, and that conversation fell into distinct grooves. Events since then have kept this discussion fresh, with various bodies being characterized as fascist or not, reaching its zenith or nadir in the recent essay by former PB contributor @SeanT…