Trump needs a clear victory in Iowa
Christie pulls out – a boost for Haley?
Just 4 days to go before the first set piece of this year’s White House when the opening salvos and first actual voting are in Iowa with its caucuses. This time there will only be a Republican Party caucus while the Democrats contest will take place in about six weeks.
The Iowa caucuses are a very difficult election to assess and there have been several instances in the past of the betting being completely wrong. Essentially people don’t go to vote in a polling station but rather attend a local meeting of Republican Party. These are all help held at 7:00 p.m. in the evening and given the weather in the state in January it’s just likely to be cold and snowy.
The election is not run by the state but by the Republican party itself and there have been instances in the past of the early numbers being completely wrong compared with what happened. I remember one year when a leading betting exchange in the UK paid out to backers of the wrong candidate on the night. The formal re-count found the first numbers were wrong.
Trump is polling well and the prominent anti-Trumper, Chris Christie has just announced that he’s pulling out. That could help Nikki Haley.