The detail from YouGov’s CON 20% poll
More terrible Tory numbers so close to the election The most frightening figure for the Tories is that just 35% of GE2019 CON voters still back the party.
Trump goes on the offensive threatening Haley’s donors
This is just nasty and shows how worried he is Mike Smithson
A popular populist? Trump’s chances in the popular vote
American voters look highly likely to witness a rematch in November, for the first time in almost 70 years. But while the candidates may look familiar to last time, the polls look quite different. In fact, Donald Trump has the best polling for a Republican nominee at this stage for at least 20 years. Over the last 20 years, and especially the last decade, the Republican Party has become a very successful minority party. Its big advantage in rural areas…
Boris to lead Reform UK?
Assume for a moment that you are Boris, and that you would like to be Prime Minister again. What are your prospects of regaining the Tory leadership? Before the GE? Nearly zero. You aren’t an MP, and Sunak has made it clear that you’re not going to be a candidate under his leadership. After the GE? Well, maybe. But someone else will have been made leader post-Sunak. Will they be in a hurry to welcome a rival back in a…
Trump wins New Hampshire primary but Haley says campaign is ‘far from over’
His margin was just over 10% Haley did better than the polls and most of the predictions and the idea that this was going to be a knock-out blow for Trump did not quite materialise. Haley is still in this race and the next primary is in South Carolina where she used to be the governor. Mike Smithson
Thank you Tories for all the betting opportunities
I suspect we are heading for the trigger point for a vote of confidence in Sunak, a vote I expect him to win comfortably because there is no clear replacement but some Tories think following the Australian precedent of replacing a PM every few months is the way to go. TSE
The WH2024 betting as Trump all but secures the GOP nomination
Today, the New Hampshire primary, and possibly the last chance for Nikki Haley remain in the race. I find this totally depressing and one just hopes that something will happen legally that could stop Trump. This is looking more and more like a WH2020 re-re-run. Mike Smithson
Sunak’s Departure Schedule: Factoring in the Leadership Fight
“When the curtain falls, it’s time to get off the stage.” So said John Major the morning after the 1997 election, announcing his resignation as Tory leader. But he actually remained leader for another 6 weeks. This was typical of Tory leaders, who have universally remained in post while their leader is chosen. This has remained the case after the change to include the final members ballot, stretching the timetable. Even Liz Truss waiting for Sunak to be chosen by…