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Author: Quincel

Sunak’s spot of sunshine: Reform underperformed

Sunak’s spot of sunshine: Reform underperformed

The locals didn’t offer much comfort for the Tories. The high point was Ben Houchen surviving a 17% swing against him. The Lib Dems won more councillors than them for the first time since 1996. But there was one glimmer of hope: Reform UK fell a fair bit short of what their national polling would suggest. The Right Benchmarks They say history never repeats, but the rise of Reform is as close as we’ll get. Farage’s new party (with someone…

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Life after Sunak – Tory Leadership Contenders

Life after Sunak – Tory Leadership Contenders

From Pip Moss The next Tory Leadership contest should be one of the most fiercely fought for some time. Rather than choosing a new Prime Minister, it is highly likely the Tories will select a new leader at the same time as coming to terms with a significant, possibly even landslide, election defeat. History is not destiny, but past contests suggest a couple of betting tips at the time of writing. A Retreat to Type Parties seem to direct inwards…

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A popular populist? Trump’s chances in the popular vote

A popular populist? Trump’s chances in the popular vote

American voters look highly likely to witness a rematch in November, for the first time in almost 70 years. But while the candidates may look familiar to last time, the polls look quite different. In fact, Donald Trump has the best polling for a Republican nominee at this stage for at least 20 years. Over the last 20 years, and especially the last decade, the Republican Party has become a very successful minority party. Its big advantage in rural areas…

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Sunak’s Departure Schedule: Factoring in the Leadership Fight

Sunak’s Departure Schedule: Factoring in the Leadership Fight

“When the curtain falls, it’s time to get off the stage.” So said John Major the morning after the 1997 election, announcing his resignation as Tory leader. But he actually remained leader for another 6 weeks. This was typical of Tory leaders, who have universally remained in post while their leader is chosen. This has remained the case after the change to include the final members ballot, stretching the timetable. Even Liz Truss waiting for Sunak to be chosen by…

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How viable are Green targets in 2024? Part Two

How viable are Green targets in 2024? Part Two

As discussed in Part One, the Greens have gained impressive local council bases the last couple of years and are targetting three new seats at the 2024 election to try and grow their Parliamentary presence. However, while the Greens are clearly ascendant in their new target seats, albeit not to great heights in North Herefordshire, the same is not true in Brighton Pavilion. Losing Lucas Since winning the seat in 2010, Caroline Lucas has built a formidable majority which now…

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How viable are Green targets in 2024? Part One

How viable are Green targets in 2024? Part One

It rarely makes headlines outside of The New Statesman, but the Greens have had (by far) their best period ever since 2019. Since that election the Greens have set new records in: By-elections (First ever double-digit vote share, plus two of only four deposits saved in their history); Local elections (Trebling their local council base since 2019, and increasing it almost 10 times from the pre-2019 level); Mayoral Elections (Record vote share in London, and everywhere else where they ran…

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Divide and conquer? Betting on the October 19th by-elections

Divide and conquer? Betting on the October 19th by-elections

October 19th sees two by-elections, both in similarly safe Tory seats. The bookies (and presumably punters) rate the Tory chances as fairly different in the two seats. I’m not sure that’s right. Tamworth and Mid Beds certainly have their differences. Tamworth is a Midlands seat which heavily backed leave with an estimated 66% of their vote, whereas Mid Beds is a more affluent southern seat which is estimated to have voted leave by 53% – almost exactly the national average….

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Labour could be the main threat in Mid Beds

Labour could be the main threat in Mid Beds

My last article, arguing Labour are rightly favourite in Selby & Ainsty, provoked a very fair rebuttal from some commenters. The Tories may be vulnerable, but Labour are hardly a party with a history of by-election upsets. That’s what the Lib Dems are for. The Lib Dems have enjoyed three by-election victories since the last election, winning not just Remain-leaning Chesham & Amersham but also Leave seats in North Shropshire and Tiverton & Honiton. In these latter two seats they…

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