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Have you ever switched your vote because of your betting? James Forsyth has a nice political betting story in his Mail on Sunday column today. He writes:- One Eurosceptic Tory had an unusual reason for abstaining in the vote on an EU referendum: he didn’t want to lose a bet. Convinced that the rebellion would fizzle out, he had made a wager with a fellow sceptic that fewer than 60 Tories would vote against the Government. The deal was that,…

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The chart shows this week’s leader ratings by YouGov for today’s Sunday times with the figure highlighted being the net change for each on a week ago. Given the way the commons EU vote has been reported the Cameron camp might have expected something worse than just a -4% net change. The voting intentions in the poll had 39/36/8. UKIP were on 7% just one point behind the Lib Dems. The VI question, like with all the pollsters, asked how…

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Isn’t the same thing happening on the EU When Guido launched his e-petition on capital punishment three months ago I thought it an odd thing for his blog to be doing – but I had little doubt that he’d reach the 100,000 signature threshold within the laid down six month period. I was also confident that the anti-Guido move launched on the same day would get overwhelmed. For whenever the restoration of capital punishment has been polled then there’s usually…

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How does the Coalition navigate a new EU treaty? Considering that domestic matters are the bread and butter of politics, it’s surprising how often foreign affairs play a significant part in their leaving office. Of the last four, Thatcher and Major both failed to navigate divisions over Europe, Blair never recovered from Iraq. The combination of the referendum vote in parliament this week and the possibility of a new treaty to increase the institutional control within the Eurozone should therefore…

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Henry G Manson’s weekly column A week ago Tim Montgomerie astutely identified the need for the Conservative Party to being on the side of ‘the little guy’ as part of a renewed effort to win their first majority since 1992. The ConHome Editor pointed to research of marginals from Lord Ashcroft that showed that ‘among target voters there is a sense that we are a party of the rich’. This is something that will not change overnight but can only…

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Are we seeing the polling impact of Monday’s vote? The overnight YouGov poll for the Sun saw Labour move to a seven point lead over the Conservatives – the largest gap since the firm changed its weighting methodology earlier in the month. A deficit of seven points is a big margin particularly as the Tories need to be at least seven points ahead to have any hope of securing a majority. In the past I have not given too much…

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A guest slot by Robert Smithson If you read The Telegraph, or the pb.com commenters, you could hardly fail to come to the conclusion that the Euro has been a disaster for all involved. Riots in the streets of Athens, austerity in Ireland, and the bumblings of Euro-summits serve only to reinforce the view. Yet, as always, the truth is rather more nuanced. Since January the first 1999, when the Euro was introduced, GDP per head in the Eurozone has…

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