What is most striking is that three out of four worst Tory by election defeats to Labour since 1945 have come in the last year under Sunak’s leadership, at some point Tory MPs will be thinking even a tub of lard, a lettuce, or Liz Truss would do a better job than Sunak. I suspect a significant body of Tory MPs will think the way to salvation is chasing the 13% of Reform voters which will be a mistake. The…
The voting stops in an hour and I’m utterly mesmerised by the tweets above. Post your predictions on today’s by-elections in the comments. TSE
To illsustrate this thread I am showing how Snarkets define an overall maajority in its GE24 market, As can be seen LAB majority punters will only end up on the winning side if the party chalks up 326 seats which is 124 than was achived at GE2019. It is quite likely that Starmer will get what effectively is a majority but which does not meet the bookie definition. The bookie rules do not take into account factors like Sinn Fein…
On Monday I had an appointment at the local NHS memory clinic to hear the results of a series of tests that had been carried out on me. The news was as bad as I had feared and was told that I have had dementia. This is a very hard thing to be aware of and I am determined to make the best of what time I have left. I was very impressed by the manner of the person who…
As voters in Kingswood and Wellingborough go out today to vote if this MRP is anywhere near accurate then Labour are going to win these by-elections handsomely. Over on Betfair there is a market on how many seats the Tories will lose, the value is, apart from laying the Tories losing more than 400 seats which is an impossibility considering they only won 365 seats at the last election, could be backing the Tories to lose in the 250-299 and…
If punters are right then Donald Trump is going to become President again early next year and that will have profound implications for the United Kingdom. His dangerous comments about NATO last week place Europe in a perilous position and only modern day Tankies in the United Kingdom could defend him. So what if Donald Trump follows through on his words and damages NATO? I suspect Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will have to look at joining a replacement for…
Overnight the Dems won the special election from the GOP. Now a lot of this will be down to George Santos who was expelled from Congress for fraud and lying about his personal history. This is a seat that the Dems won in 2020 but lost in the midterms, given the poor polling for Biden this gain for the Dems seems like good news, as the Tweet above implies it fits a pattern of the Dems over performing the polls/the…
We have two by-elections this week in which the government are likely to get gubbed but the major focus has been on the Rochdale by-election which takes place at the end of the month. The Labour candidate has had support from the Labour party withdrawn due to his past comments on the events in the Middle East. It may seem rather quaint that a by-election in this country is being impacted because of a quarrel in a far-away country between people…