Santorum gets within 8% Poll Romney Santorum Ron Paul Gingrich Perry Huntsman Rasmussen NATIONAL 29 21 12 16 4 4 Gallup NATIONAL tracker 27 11 13 19 6 2 Suffolk Uni NEW HAMPSHIRE tracker 41 8 18 7 0 7 Zogby NEW HAMPSHIRE 38 11 24 9 1 8 The big difference between the Gallup daily poll and Rasmussen is that the former is a tracker based on the average of the last five surveys. As Nate Silver observes it’s…
In praise of Douglas Carswell I am a Lib Dem but I’ve always found the partisan nature of UK politics a bit of a turn off. I think most people realise it is largely a facade and that lots of parliamentarians get on very well with their colleagues from other parties. In some cases much better than they do on their own side, after all they are vying with those in their own party for the jobs! So I was…
Guardian Can she expect preferment in the expected ministerial re-shuffle? When Conservative MPs return to Westminster after the long New Year break you can bet that one of the main things they’ll be talking about will be David Cameron’s first major re-shuffle of his ministerial team which is expected at some stage during 2012 – probably after the Olympics. This is the moment when many of the 147 Tory MPs first elected at the general election will be hoping to…
So close yet so far Thanks to Marf for tonight’s cartoon. All eyes are now on New Hampshire where Romney should have an easier time. One thing’s “almost certain” is that the winning margin next Tuesday night will be a lot larger. So certain are Ladbrokes that this will be the case that they have introduced a handicap market. Will Romney’s lead be greater than 18%. Also to add interest they are taking bets on the winner excluding Romney. The…
Betfair Politics The reaction of punters on the Betfair markets to the overnight victory by just 8 votes in the Republican Iowa caucuses has been twofold: to make Mitt Romney an even tighter favourite for GOP nomination and for more money to be piled on the Democratic party retaining control of the White House in November. For although Romney did get it by a whisker the result has not been anything like as emphatic as he might have liked and…
CNN I’m off to bed without knowing yet who has won the Iowa caucuses. As I write at 6.45am there are just 18 votes separating Santorum and Romney with only 2 precincts to report. It could go either way though the big message in the media is that essentially it’s a tie. Where does the race go from here? Rick Perry appeared to be saying that he was pulling out and it’s hard to see Michelle Bachmann staying in there….
..Marf gives her view The massive challenge for the campaigns in Iowa is ensuring that as many as their supporters as possible are at the venues for the caucus meetings in time for the 7pm local time start. There’s very little time to carry out a round up and so much depends on the early work that they’ve done. Who knows what the outcome will be but one things for sure – the fight for the Republican party nomination will…
PB 2012 competition predictions now out Mitt Romney is headed for a win in today’s GOP caucuses in the Hawkeye State, will win the New Hampshire primary and the Republican presidential nomination – but will then lose to Barack Obama in the battle for the White House in November, according to the findings from the Politicalbetting 2012 Prediction Competition. Rick Santorum is seen as the leading “not-Romney†candidate – but trails by a country mile in predictions for the eventual…