BBC Will it be his day in Iowa? We are here at last – January 3rd the day of the Iowa caucuses which is the first step in the process of the US choosing its next president. Tonight at 7pm Iowa time tens of thousands of ordinary voters will be attending caucus meetings at more than 1,700 venues throughout the state. It will be the aggregate of votes taken at those meetings which will be the “result”. We should start…
Could the demos start to have an impact? Ladbrokes have put up a market this afternoon offering 4/1 against Vladimir Putin failing to become president in the elections scheduled for March. It’s just a month since Russia’s general election when there were widespread allegations of ballot rigging. This prompted demonstrations on a scale that has not not been seen there for decades and put into question the outcome of March’s presidential election. Could it be that the storm that’s been…
Could Mitt really be pipped at the post? I can’t recall a survey in recent times that has been scrutinised as much as the one by the respected US pollster, Ann Selzer for the Des Moines Register. What sets it apart is Selzer’s track record, the scale of the phone survey and the effort to only to count those most likely to take part in tomorrow’s caucus meetings at 1,700 location across Iowa. As Politico reports: “Selzer…said in an interview…
Can you foresee what’ll happen in the political world in 2012? With the new year less than a day old but with Iowa already at fever pitch, it’s time to make your competition predictions for what could be a huge year for political and economic events around the world. As before the competition is being hosted by the Election Game. If you would like to take part in the Game, the 2012 season is now underway – the Leaders &…
David Herdson dusts off his crystal ball for the year ahead For all that 2011 was a big year for politics domestically – the first nationwide referendum since the 1970s, in which AV was voted down, the formation of a majority SNP government at Holyrood, cracks appearing in both the coalition and Ed Miliband’s leadership – the biggest stories came from abroad. At the start of the year, predicting mounting trouble for the Eurozone, where problems in Greece, Ireland and…
Could Mitt be over-taken on Tuesday? The big news tonight in the race for the White House is that the much anticipated Des Moines Register poll is just out. The overall figures are in line with other recent surveys – Romney 24% / Paul 22% / Santorum 15% / Gingrich 12% / Perry 11% / Bachmann 7%. But the paper reports that there was a massive difference in responses later in the week which suggest that the momentum is with…
Will incumbents hold on in London/Washington/Paris? It’s a big year coming up opening with the Iowa caucus on Tuesday to be followed by a White House race primary programme lasting nearly six months – which I think is the longest ever. On this side of the Atlantic there’s the French Presidential election in April/May where Sarkorzy will be fighting for a second term. We haven’t covered that yet – I’ve been waiting for Betfair to open up a market –…
Were your 2011 picks crystal clear or “through a glass darkly?†Congratulations to Oliver who finished 29 points ahead of Jim Lowe with Dan Tor in third place in PB’s annual prediction competition – the full table with all players is available here, as well as an Excel spreadsheet showing the detailed breakdown of results. These were the questions from a year ago. The first section looked at key posts as at Christmas 2011, and the first three questions were…