The New Year’s Day PB prediction competition

The New Year’s Day PB prediction competition

Can you foresee what’ll happen in the political world in 2012?

With the new year less than a day old but with Iowa already at fever pitch, it’s time to make your competition predictions for what could be a huge year for political and economic events around the world.

As before the competition is being hosted by the Election Game. If you would like to take part in the Game, the 2012 season is now underway – the Leaders & Finance game is here and the New Hampshire game is here – it’s free to enter, entries close 7pm Monday 9th Jan, and the Game can also be followed here on Twitter (@electiongame).

Please do not make your predictions on this thread, but click through to the link below.

Competition entries close 7pm GMT tomorrow – enter here

Part 1 – on Christmas Day 2012 who will be…?

(50 points for each correct answer unless shown otherwise)

1 – UK Prime Minister (100 points)

2 – Deputy Prime Minister

3 – Labour Leader

4 – London Mayor

5 – French President (100 points)

Part 2 – The US 2012 elections – who will win the following?

(50 points for each correct answer unless shown otherwise)

6 – The Iowa Republican caucus on 3rd January

7 – The New Hampshire Republican primary on 10th January

8 – The Republican presidential nomination (100 points)

9 – The US presidential election (150 points)

Part 3 – Seat gains/losses in the May local elections for England, Scotland, and Wales

The competition will also include the London Assembly seats – a schedule of the council elections is available here, and the results will be settled on the BBC figures.

(100 points for each correct answer reducing by one point for each three seats out or part thereof, except SNP and Plaid Cymru which are 50 points for each correct answer reducing by one point for each seat out.)

10 – Net Conservative seats gained/lost in England/Scotland/Wales combined

11 – Net Labour seats gained/lost in England/Scotland/Wales combined

12 – Net Lib Dem seats gained/lost in England/Scotland/Wales combined

13 – Net SNP seats gained/lost in Scotland

14 – Net Plaid Cymru seats gained/lost in Wales

Part 4 – the Opinion Polls – what will ICM report as…?

(50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)

15 – Labour’s highest percentage during the year
16 – Labour’s lowest percentage during the year

17 – The Conservatives’ highest percentage during the year
18 – The Conservatives’ lowest percentage during the year

19 – The Lib Dems’ highest percentage during the year
20 – The Lib Dems’ lowest percentage during the year

21 – Labour’s biggest lead over the Conservatives
22 – Labour’s smallest lead over the Conservatives/the Conservatives’ biggest lead over Labour

In the event of any dispute, the organiser’s decision is final – many thanks and good luck.

Double Carpet (@electiongame)

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