William Hill have some markets on what Trump’s second term will deliver. A golden rule of betting is not to get involved in markets when the bookie doesn’t offer both sides of the market however I am attracted by the 5/1 on Trump to take the USA out of NATO. The way he is behaving it wouldn’t be a shock to see it happen. TSE
I find this polling fascinating because it covers some diverse but some interconnected issues. I think Starmer will be delighted his handling has5 led to some good polling for him. Brexiteers will be disappointed to see a 10% tariff as a Brexit dividend but 23% say it makes Brexit the right decision whereas 34% disagree. TSE
A feature of the classical Greek world was that long-term alliances, as we would understand the term, rarely existed. A major power, be it Athens, Sparta, Thebes, or Macedon, would attempt to assert supremacy over its neighbours, and if successful, it would be accepted by them as Hegemon. Typically, a Hegemon would expect its allies to follow it in war, accept garrisons of its soldiers, and colonies of its citizens, and frequently, pay them tribute. The Hegemon’s allies were therefore,…
On Friday I pointed out that Starmer’s ratings were improving (and Farage’s ratings fell) and it is no surprise to see Labour’s ratings improve whilst Reform’s fall. I am keen on this type of polling because it gives an indication what level of tactical voting we might see against the parties. Normally I would expect Labour to have a substantial edge on this but based on this Labour might not have much advantage over Reform but the caveat is that…
Assuming the free and fair elections are held in 2028 then the longer Trump’s tariffs are in place then the bigger the Republican Party defeat. Last year I regularly posted on PB that the economic polling would presage a Trump victory, particularly on the cost of living issue Trump’s tariffs will push up prices to a rather high level and that will bugger up the Republican Party (as will the carnage on the stock market.) In the way Boris Johnson…
The British constitution, much like a badly organised school sports day, has always valued tradition over efficiency. And among the most venerable traditions of our great nation is the appointment of people to the House of Lords not because they have led with honour, wisdom, or humility—but because, well, someone has to keep the red benches warm. Enter Amanda Spielman. Now, before the mob gathers outside Westminster with pitchforks and strongly worded tweets, let’s get one thing clear: this isn’t…
What is leadership? A good case could be made that the key to leadership is understanding what is wrong and taking action to put it right. This, however, requires the leader in question to admit they have done something wrong and therefore that there is a problem that needs fixing. On this basis, possibly the most inept leader in Britain in the last 100 years would be Amanda Spielman. Let us consider what she has done wrong in an extremely…
When Liz Truss soiled the bed and spooked the financial markets during her fugacious tenure as Prime Minister the men in grey suits intervened to end her premiership which reflects well on the Tory that they acted swiftly, after a fashion. America has some options to oust an America Liz Truss such as impeachment or the Twenty-fifth Amendment but that requires a sufficient number of Republican Party members of Congress or the cabinet to grow a spine but that isn’t…