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Antifrank compares 2015 to 1992

22/6/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

We spend much time looking at the most recent developments. Â But every now and then it is profitable to stand back and look at longer term trends. Â That is most easily done by comparing elections which produced quite similar overall results and then looking at the detail. Â The 1992 and the 2015 election results are sufficiently similar overall to make that a valuable exercise. Â Except in Scotland. The overall result in 2015 was as follows:Â Con 330Â Lab 232Â SNP 56Â Lib Dem 8Â Plaid…

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Betting on the date of the EU referendum

22/6/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Over the weekend, stories emerged, which were downplayed by Number 10, that theÂ EU referendum Â was set for October 2016.Â Â Then the Telegraph’s Chief Political Correspondent tweeted this afternoon. David Cameron could secure EU deal in time for Octoberâ€™s Tory party conference, Number 10 has indicated today. By me: http://t.co/519i3mJ491 — Christopher Hope (@christopherhope) June 22, 2015 It looks like July to October 2016 would be the optimal time to hold the referendum from Cameron’s point of view and William Hill’s 3/1…

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The most important result on May 7th

22/6/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Why David Cameron might be grateful to Mark Reckless defecting Whilst it might be accurate to say every constituency result on May the 7th was important, the result in Rochester & Strood might be the one that has most impact in this parliament.Â Anything that helps, to borrow LBJ’s maxim, about keeping the Eurosceptics inside the tent pissing out, rather than outside pissing in, is good for the Tories, Cameron and the continued life of this government. Given the way the…

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Latest on the Labour leadership race

21/6/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

We may soon see crossover between Burnham & Cooper Betfair exchange trend chart showing Burnham's odds as % age chance pic.twitter.com/2JtiIAkO2k — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 21, 2015 Betfair exchange trend chart showing Cooper's odds as % age chance pic.twitter.com/HP7A9FuY7i — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 21, 2015 Implied percentages from the Betfair odds for winning the Labour leadership just now are 39.37% for Burnham and 36.23% for Cooper. This may just be political gravity bringing the odds back down to a more…

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Betting on the next Labour leader leading the party into the next general election

21/6/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

There is a risk of Labour overcompensating for not removing Brown & Miliband. During Wednesday’s debate, Andy Burnham and the other contenders admitted they would stand down as leader if they were a hindrance to Labour winning in 2020, the fact we’re having this debate is down to Labour realising they may have done better at the 2010 and 2015 elections if they had taken the opportunities to remove Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband. Any mistake or poor polling will…

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David Miliband won the 2010 LAB members ballot by 8.8% – the final poll had had him 4% behind

20/6/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

YouGov LAB members poll Sept ’10 YouGov 1st round Actual 1st round YouGov Miliband preference Final votes ABBOTT, Diane 11 7.3 0 0 BALLS, Ed 9 10.1 0 0 BURNHAM, Andy 10 8.6 0 0 MILIBAND, David 38 44.1 48 54.4 MILIBAND, Ed 31 29.9 52 45.6 Left wing contenders were overstated, those of the right understated Judging by what some LAB members have been Tweeting it looks as though, maybe even tonight, we’ll see the first poll, from YouGov,…

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GrEUxit?

20/6/2015 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Greeceâ€™s brinkmanship is risking its membership of the EU Quite why the received wisdom has taken root that should the Greek government default on its debts then it follows that Greece will leave the Eurozone is something of a mystery. Logically, the two do not follow at all. Several cities and even states in the US have defaulted without leaving the Dollar zone and while Greece is a semi-sovereign country rather than a province in a federation, which makes a…

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Local By-Election Results : June 18th 2015

19/6/2015 Editor Comments 0 Comment

North Highcliffe and Walkford on Christchurch (Deferred Election, Two Conservative Defences) Result: Emboldened denotes elected Labour: Donald Barr 143, Gareth Walls 132 Conservatives: Sally Derham-Wilkes 793 , Nick Geary 775 United Kingdom Independence Party: Robin Grey 315, Janet Hatton 288 Two Conservative HOLDS Holmwoods on Mole Valley (Deferred Election, One Liberal Democrat Defence from 2011, one UKIP defence from 2014) Result: Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives: James Baird 492, Emma Whittinger 458 United Kingdom Independence Party: Michael Foulston 201, Stephen Morgan…

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