Antifrank looks at The boundaries of reason: the possible shape of the 2020 election I previously looked back at the impact of demographic changes on party politics from 1992 to 2015. That’s all well and good, but what changes can we expect for 2020? To determine that we first need to consider what the new boundaries are likely to look like. It might be thought that the future musings of the Boundary Commissions are imponderable, but we have quite a…
Guardian front page via @suttonnick Clegg offered to resign as Lib Dem leader in May 2014 http://t.co/gTWlPjXRRw pic.twitter.com/zTWhL3GspY — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 24, 2015 The Guardian have a fascinating and detailed piece on the Lib Dem time in government, it is clear how much reneging on their pre-election tuition fees pledge damaged the Lib Dems and the events of May 2014 and the failed Oakeshott attempt to remove Clegg, Vince Cable’s reputation isn’t enhanced by this story. Nick Clegg discussed resigning…
Another reason why @ZacGoldsmith is the favourite to be the next Mayor of London. http://t.co/S7hfYnxdwv pic.twitter.com/FTAqGBMejz — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 24, 2015 London calling for a third time for the architect of the Tory general election victory? At the general election in London, relatively speaking, Labour did better, the Tories did worse than the rest of the country, which might indicate a slight resistance to Crosby’s methods. However given his past success in London with the current mayor, this should…
Following on from Tissue Price’s piece yesterday, Ladbrokes have put a market on most seats without the SNP. As he said yesterday,  If, when the market goes up, you see a price bigger than this on any of these I’d tentatively suggest that it might be value. Labour 4/7 Green 7/2 Conservatives 6/1 Meanwhile Paddy Power have a market on who will get the second highest number of first preferences in the Labour leadership election. The head says Yvette Cooper, the heart says…
Yvette should be the most disappointed This ORB poll for the Independent was conducted among all voters, not Labour members, Andy Burnham will be delighted with these figures, he can cite that the wider electorate perceive him as the candidate who will do the most to improve Labour’s chances at the next election, which should do his leadership ambitions no harm. The most interesting aspect of this poll is Liz Kendall’s numbers, she’s second to Burnham in this poll, both…
Making a tissue on a “Betting Without” market This is a betting thread without a market as yet. However, the best prices on any political market can usually be found within either the first six hours or the last six. So a little forethought as to what you’d be prepared to back – and at what price – can often be rewarded handsomely. Someone launching a “without the SNP†market on Holyrood is only going to be a matter of…
.@ZacGoldsmith's constituents back his attempt to become London Mayor. http://t.co/ixQdxdBGC7 pic.twitter.com/vFRuYCrYtE — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 23, 2015 Zac takes over as favourite to be elected London Mayor. 2/1 Zac 5/2 Jowell 10/3 Khan via @LadPolitics pic.twitter.com/keApCRF0IP — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 23, 2015 The other important news is that Goldsmith has persuaded, another contender, Nick de Bois, to be his campaign chairman, which is a sign that people see his nomination as inevitable. Taking the 1/2 that Paddy Power are offering…
You know when a candidate is losing when they start to blame the rules of the game. We don’t get more proof than in London right now. Len Duvall, a backer of Tessa Jowell’s bid to be Labour mayoral candidate, has publicly warned of the dangers of muslims and trade union members registering to vote in the Labour mayoral selection. He questioned whether this was in the ‘spirit’Â of the contest. It may be shameless but Len knows what he is…