|YouGov LAB members poll Sept ’10||YouGov 1st round||Actual 1st round||YouGov Miliband preference||Final votes|
Left wing contenders were overstated, those of the right understated
Judging by what some LAB members have been Tweeting it looks as though, maybe even tonight, we’ll see the first poll, from YouGov, of those who will be able to vote in Labour’s leadership election
at the end of August.
Is Burnham’s favourite status justified and how will the critical second and third preferences split? Maybe that will be clearer.
In the past YouGov has made leaders’ ballot a speciality after building up data on party and union membership amongst members of its polling panel . It got the Cameron-Davis battle of 2005 right to within 1%.
Last time with LAB, when EdM got elected in September 2010, a third of the electoral college was made up of the views of members and it was the trade union third that thwarted David Miliband and allowed Ed to squeeze past. This time the vast bulk of the electorate will be LAB members or those who have registered as supporters.
The above table looks at how YouGov did in its final members’ survey which was carried out about 2 weeks before voting closed in the 2010 leadership race.
To deal with the fact that this was an election under AV YouGov asked a final question as to which of the two Miliband brothers people would vote for. The figures are in the table.
As can be seen the more left wing candidates tended to be overstated and that to the final “which Miliband” question David won the members part by 8.8% against the 4% poll lead for Ed.
Will the same happen this time? Who knows but it is worth bearing in mind.