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Category: Labour leadership

Labour’s paths to victory: the choices of Sir Keir Starmer

Labour’s paths to victory: the choices of Sir Keir Starmer

The wheel turns.  In 2005, Labour won 355 seats, a majority of 64.  The Conservatives got just 198.  But last year, the Conservatives took 365 seats, a majority of 80, while Labour secured just 202.  The two elections as close to exact reverses of each other as you’ll ever get for the major parties. Labour would like to turn the tables again.  In order to do so, they’ll need to decide how this is achievable.  In essence, they have three…

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The latest Opinium poll has Starmer beating Johnson on thirteen different measures yet still the Tories retain their 4% voting lead

The latest Opinium poll has Starmer beating Johnson on thirteen different measures yet still the Tories retain their 4% voting lead

Good news for the red team as their leader completes his first three months? The above chart from Opinium sets out the responses to a wide range of match-ups between Starmer and Johnson and as can be seen these sre not good for the current incumbent at Number 10. One of the reasons as you look through the detail is that voters of just about all persuasions including Tories are reluctant to give the new LAB leader and former DPP…

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Starmer is the most popular leader of the opposition since Blair – so why isn’t LAB ahead?

Starmer is the most popular leader of the opposition since Blair – so why isn’t LAB ahead?

From Keiran Pedley – now of Ipsos-MORI It is fair to say that Keir Starmer has made a positive start to life as Labour leader. Our latest figures from the Ipsos MORI political monitor show that 51% of the British public are satisfied with the job Starmer is doing, 20% are dissatisfied and 29% don’t know.  Starmer’s net satisfaction score of +31 has never been beaten by a leader of the opposition in the 40+ years we have been tracking…

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GE2019 Tory remainers – the key voting group who are giving Starmer positive ratings

GE2019 Tory remainers – the key voting group who are giving Starmer positive ratings

We are just over 3 years and 10 months from May 2nd 2024 which is the final date that the next general election can be held. That’s the time that the new Labour leader, Keir Starmer, has got in order to put himself into position where LAB can take enough seats to make the party electorally competitive. LAB’s seat total from GE2019 was 202 – the lowest total that the party has achieved since 1935. To get a majority Labour…

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Who will be Sir Keir Starmer’s successor?

Who will be Sir Keir Starmer’s successor?

My 25/1 tip as next Labour leader. It might seem odd, even before a pandemic, to start looking at Sir Keir Starmer’s successor a fortnight after he was elected, in normal circumstances the earliest there might be a vacancy in 2024 and if Starmer takes power at the next general election there might not be a vacancy for a decade or longer so it is possible the next leader of the Labour party isn’t on this list. Things can rapidly…

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Even Tory leavers are giving Starmer positive approval ratings

Even Tory leavers are giving Starmer positive approval ratings

Just a week after becoming Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has this weekend seen his first approval ratings and the numbers are certainly hugely different from those of his predecessor. He starts with an opinion net 26% lead for those saying he’s has their approval against those who say he doesn’t have their approval. The party/referendum vote split will be encouraging for the Starmer camp. He’s clearly doing well amongst LAB remainers and GE2019 LDs and, as the graphic shows…

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The Grand Entrance. Sir Keir Starmer’s electoral challenges

The Grand Entrance. Sir Keir Starmer’s electoral challenges

So passes Jeremy Corbyn.  He hands over to his successor a party in the doldrums, with just 202 MPs, most representing seats in the largest metropolitan areas.  If Labour are to win an overall majority of one at the next election, they will need 124 extra MPs. That would require a uniform national swing of over 10%.  Such swings are exceptionally rare. The last time it happened was in 1997. So Labour better hope that Sir Keir is a new…

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